Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region

Author(s)

Zullo, Jr., Jurandir ^[1] ; Pereira, Vania Rosa ^[1] ; Koga-Vicente, Andrea ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Ctr Meteorol & Climat Res Appl Agr, Campinas, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Climatic Change; v. 149, n. 3-4, p. 489-502, AUG 2018.
• Web of Science Citations: 1

Abstract

The Brazilian sugar-energy sector (SES) is facing an increasing challenge due to the worldwide expansion of biofuel consumption as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making yield improvement and land and water availability key factors in addressing this situation. Consequently, our main aim here is to identify SES vulnerability under climate change conditions, based on the methodology used by the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risks (ZARC) program. We assessed changes of the sugarcane ZARC in light of the current and near-future climatic conditions given by eight general circulation models (GCM) of the 5th IPCC report and under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. We identified a conversion of the current climatic risk levels in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region for sugarcane in future climate change scenarios, but the spatial distribution of these changes is heterogeneous. The current expansion areas located mainly in southern Goias and northwest of So Paulo are marked by an increase in areas of low water availability in the future, while the traditional production areas, east of So Paulo, do not present this same vulnerability. Sugarcane cultivation in the south of Goias is already occurring based on a complementary irrigation (of about 50 mm per month from April to September) to reach a yield similar to traditional areas located in So Paulo state. The development of drought-resistant cultivars based on genetic engineering and the efficiency of the irrigation systems used on a large spatial scale and also in the long term are two key points of concern in the Brazilian context of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The challenges for the traditional production regions are related to the production system's ability to regulate the capacity and idleness of sugarcane mills aiming to avoid current and future competition by same raw material. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 13/15434-6 - Association of modeled precipitation and temperature patterns with climate forcing mechanisms as a support to evaluate the sugarcane productivity
• Grantee: Vânia Rosa Pereira
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 08/58160-5 - Generation of alcohol production scenarios as support for the formulation of public policies applied to the adaptation of the national sugar and alcohol industry to the climate changes
• Grantee: Jurandir Zullo Junior
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants