Advanced search
Start date
Betweenand
Related content
(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

El Nino Driven Changes in Global Fire 2015/16

Full text
Author(s):
Burton, Chantelle [1] ; Betts, Richard A. [1, 2] ; Jones, Chris D. [1] ; Feldpausch, Ted R. [3] ; Cardoso, Manoel [4] ; Anderson, Liana O. [5]
Total Authors: 6
Affiliation:
[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon - England
[2] Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Exeter, Devon - England
[3] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon - England
[4] Brazilian Inst Space Res INPE, Earth Syst Sci Ctr CCST, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
[5] Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat Disasters, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 5
Document type: Journal article
Source: Frontiers in Earth Science; v. 8, JUN 10 2020.
Web of Science Citations: 0
Abstract

El Nino years are characterized by a high sea surface temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to unusually warm and dry conditions over many fire-prone regions globally. This can lead to an increase in burned area and emissions from fire activity, and socio-economic, and environmental losses. Previous studies using satellite observations to assess the impacts of the recent 2015/16 El Nino found an increase in burned area in some regions compared to La Nina years. Here, we use the dynamic land surface model JULES to assess how conditions differed as a result of the El Nino by comparing simulations driven by observations from the year 2015/16 with mean climatological drivers of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, air pressure, and short and long-wave radiation. We use JULES with the interactive fire module INFERNO to assess the effects on precipitation, temperature, burned area, and the associated impacts on the carbon sink globally and for three regions: South America, Africa, and Asia. We find that the model projects a variable response in precipitation, with some areas including northern South America, southern Africa and East Asia getting drier, and most areas globally seeing an increase in temperature. As a result, higher burned area is simulated with El Nino conditions in most regions, although there are areas of both increased and decreased burned area over Africa. South America shows the largest fire response with El Nino, with a 13% increase in burned area and emitted carbon, corresponding with the largest decrease in carbon uptake. Within South America, peak fire occurs from August to October across central-southern Brazil, and temperature is shown to be the main driver of the El Nino-induced increase in burned area during this period. Combined, our results indicate that although 2015/16 was not a peak year for global total burned area or fire emissions, the El Nino led to an overall increase of 4% in burned area and 5% in emissions compared to a ``No El Nino{''} scenario for 2015/16, and contributed to a 4% reduction in the terrestrial carbon sink. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 16/02018-2 - Interannual variation of Amazon Basin greenhouse gas balances and their controls in a warming and increasingly variable climate – Carbam: the Amazon carbon balance long-term study
Grantee:Luciana Vanni Gatti
Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 15/50122-0 - Dynamic phenomena in complex networks: basics and applications
Grantee:Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants