The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach

Author(s)

Massad, Eduardo ^[1] ; Laporta, Gabriel Zorello ^[2] ; Conn, Jan Evelyn ^[3] ; Chaves, Leonardo Suveges ^[4] ; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino ^[5] ; Guimaraes Figueira, Elder Augusto ^[6] ; Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio ^{[7, 8]} ; Lopez, Luis Fernandez ^{[7, 8]} ; Struchiner, Claudio ^[1] ; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice ^[4]

Affiliation

^[1] Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Escola Matemat Aplicada, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil

^[2] Fundacao ABC, Ctr Univ Saude ABC, Setor Posgrad Pesquisa & Inovacao, Santo Andre, SP - Brazil

^[3] New York State Dept Hlth, Wadsworth Ctr, Albany, NY - USA

^[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Pabl, Dept Epidemiol, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[5] Secretaria Estado Saude Sao Paulo, Superintendencia Controle Endemias, Araraquara, SP - Brazil

^[6] Fundacao Vigilancia Saude Amazonas, Manaus, Amazonas - Brazil

^[7] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[8] LIM01 HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE; v. 37, SEP-OCT 2020.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Background: Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas. Methods: The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t(0) was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit. Results: Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality. Conclusions: The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 14/26229-7 - Latitudinal landscape genomics and ecology of Anopheles darlingi
• Grantee: Maria Anice Mureb Sallum
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 14/09774-1 - Dynamics of malaria transmission under distinct landscape fragmentation thresholds
• Grantee: Gabriel Zorello Laporta
• Support Opportunities: BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Young Investigators Grants