Predicting the Time of Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections at Earth From Heliospheric Imaging Observations

Author(s)

Braga, Carlos Roberto ^{[1, 2]} ; Vourlidas, Angelos ^[2] ; Stenborg, Guillermo ^[3] ; Dal Lago, Alisson ^[4] ; Souza de Mendonca, Rafael Rodrigues ^[4] ; Echer, Ezequiel ^[4]

Affiliation

^[1] George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 - USA

^[2] Johns Hopkins Univ, Appl Phys Lab, Laurel, MD 20723 - USA

^[3] US Naval Res Lab, Space Sci Div, Washington, DC - USA

^[4] Natl Inst Space Res, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS; v. 125, n. 9 SEP 2020.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

The time of arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation and the development of novel methodologies, ToA estimated errors remain above 10 h on average. Here, we investigate the prediction of the ToA of CMEs using observations from heliospheric imagers, i.e., from heliocentric distances higher than those covered by the existent coronagraphs. In order to perform this work, we analyze 14 CMEs observed by the heliospheric imagers HI-1 onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft to determine their front location and speed. The kinematic parameters are derived with a new technique based on the Elliptical Conversion (ElCon) method, which uses simultaneous observations from the two viewpoints from STEREO. Outside the field of view of the instruments, we assume that the dynamics of the CME evolution is controlled by aerodynamic drag, i.e., a force resulting from the interaction with particles from the background solar wind. To model the drag force, we use a physical model that allows us to derive its parameters without the need to rely on drag coefficients derived empirically. We found a CME ToA mean error of 1.6 +/- 8.0 h ToA and a mean absolute error of 6.9 +/- 3.9 h for a set of 14 events. The results suggest that observations from HI-1 lead to estimates with similar errors to observations from coronagraphs. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/21657-1 - Study of Jupiter magnetospheric auroral radio activity variability
• Grantee: Ezequiel Echer
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• FAPESP's process: 14/24711-6 - Study of coronal mass ejections and its corresponding interplanetary structures near the Earth
• Grantee: Carlos Roberto Braga
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 17/21270-7 - Forces acting during the propagation of coronal mass ejections
• Grantee: Carlos Roberto Braga
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor