Quantifying the effects of quarantine using an IBM SEIR model on scalefree networks

Author(s)

Marquioni, Vitor M. ^[1] ; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M. ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Fis Gleb Wataghin, BR-13083859 Campinas, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS; v. 138, SEP 2020.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led several countries to resort to social distancing, the only known way to slow down the spread of the virus and keep the health system under control. Here we use an individual based model (IBM) to study how the duration, start date and intensity of quarantine affect the height and position of the peak of the infection curve. We show that stochastic effects, inherent to the model dynamics, lead to variable outcomes for the same set of parameters, making it crucial to compute the probability of each result. To simplify the analysis we divide the outcomes in only two categories, that we call best and worst scenarios. Although long and intense quarantine is the best way to end the epidemic, it is very hard to implement in practice. Here we show that relatively short and intense quarantine periods can also be very effective in flattening the infection curve and even killing the virus, but the likelihood of such outcomes are low. Long quarantines of relatively low intensity, on the other hand, can delay the infection peak and reduce its size considerably with more than 50% probability, being a more effective policy than complete lockdown for short periods. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 19/13341-7 - Phase transitions in finite Derrida-Higgs models
• Grantee: Vitor Marquioni Monteiro
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 16/01343-7 - ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research: a regional center for theoretical physics
• Grantee: Nathan Jacob Berkovits
• Support Opportunities: Special Projects