Combining regional to local restoration goals in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Author(s)

Lemos, Cassia M. G. ^[1] ; Andrade, Pedro R. ^[1] ; Rodrigues, Ricardo R. ^[2] ; Hissa, Leticia ^[3] ; Aguiar, Ana P. D. ^{[1, 4]}

Affiliation

^[1] Brazilian Inst Space Res INPE, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP - Brazil

^[3] Smithsonian Inst, Ctr Conservat & Sustainabil, Washington, DC 20013 - USA

^[4] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, SE-11419 Stockholm - Sweden

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Regional Environmental Change; v. 21, n. 3 SEP 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

To achieve regional and international large-scale restoration goals with minimum costs, several restoration commitments rely on natural regeneration, a passive and inexpensive strategy. However, natural regeneration potential may vary within the landscape, mainly due to its historical context. In this work, we use spatially explicit restoration scenarios to explore how and where, within a given region, multiple restoration commitments could be combined to achieve cost-effectiveness outcomes. Our goal is to facilitate the elaboration of forest restoration plans at the regional level, taking into consideration the costs for active and passive restoration methods. The approach includes (1) a statistical analysis to estimate the natural regeneration potential for a given area based on alternative sets of biophysical, land cover, and/or socioeconomic factors and (2) the use of a land change allocation model to explore the cost-effectiveness of combining multiple restoration commitments in a given area through alternative scenarios. We test our approach in a strategic region in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Biome, the Paraiba Valley in Sao Paulo State. Using the available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, we build alternative scenarios for allocating natural regeneration until 2025. Our models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the region is actually very low, and the cost-effectiveness outcomes are similar for all scenarios. We believe our approach can be used to support the regional-level decision-making about the implementation of multiple commitments aiming at the same target area. It can also be combined with other approaches for more refined analysis (e.g., optimization models). (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 17/22269-2 - Transition to sustainability and agriculture-energy-water nexus: exploring an integrated approach with case studies in the Cerrado and Caatinga
• Grantee: Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants