Modeling neutral viral mutations in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics

Author(s)

Marquioni, Vitor M. ^[1] ; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M. ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas UNICAMP, Inst Fis Gleb Wataghin, Campinas, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PLoS One; v. 16, n. 7 JUL 29 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 2

Abstract

Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an individual-based model for epidemic spreading on networks in which viruses are explicitly represented by finite chains of nucleotides that can mutate inside the host. Under the hypothesis of neutral evolution we compute analytically the average pairwise genetic distance between all infecting viruses over time. We also derive a mean-field version of this equation that can be added directly to compartmental models such as SIR or SEIR to estimate the genetic evolution. We compare our results with the inferred genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of the epidemic in China and found good agreement with the analytical solution of our model. Finally, using genetic distance as a proxy for different strains, we use numerical simulations to show that the lower the connectivity between communities, e.g., cities, the higher the probability of reinfection. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/01343-7 - ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research: a regional center for theoretical physics
• Grantee: Nathan Jacob Berkovits
• Support Opportunities: Special Projects
• FAPESP's process: 19/13341-7 - Phase transitions in finite Derrida-Higgs models
• Grantee: Vitor Marquioni Monteiro
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 19/20271-5 - Evolutionary models in population dynamics
• Grantee: Marcus Aloizio Martinez de Aguiar
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants