Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Author(s)

Ibarra-Espinosa, Sergio ^[1] ; de Freitas, Edmilson Dias ^[1] ; Ropkins, Karl ^[2] ; Dominici, Francesca ^[3] ; Rehbein, Amanda ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Astron Geofis & Ciencias Atmosfer, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Leeds, Inst Transport Studies, Leeds, W Yorkshire - England

^[3] Harvard Univ, Harvard Data Sci Initiat, Boston, MA 02138 - USA

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Environmental Research; v. 204, n. D MAR 2022.
• Web of Science Citations: 1

Abstract

Brazil, the country most impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the southern hemisphere, use intensive care admissions per day, mobility and other indices to monitor quarantines and prevent the transmissions of SARS-CoV-2. In this study we quantified the associations between residential mobility index (RMI), air pollution, meteorology, and daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We applied a semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate: 1) the association between RMI and COVID-19, accounting for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O-3), relative humidity, temperature and delayed exposure between 4 and 21 days, and 2) the association between COVID-19 and exposure to for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O-3), accounting for relative humidity, temperature and mobility. We found that an RMI of 45.28% results in 1212 cases (95% CI: 1189 to 1235) and 44 deaths (95% CI: 40 to 47). Increasing the isolation from 45.28% to 50% would avoid 438 cases and 21 deaths. Also, we found that an increment of 10 mu g.m(-3) of PM2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 (95% CI: 1.021 to 1.274) for cases and 1.086 (95% CI: 1.008 to 1.170) for deaths, while O-3 produces a relative risk of 1.075 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.150) for cases and 1.063 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.124) for deaths, respectively. We compared our results with observations and literature review, finding well agreement. Policymakers can use such mobility indices as tools to control social distance activities. Spatial distancing is an important factor to control COVID-19, however, measuring face-mask usage would enhance the understanding the pandemic dynamic. Small increments of air pollution result in an increased number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 15/03804-9 - Environmental governance of macrometropolis paulista in face of climate variability
• Grantee: Pedro Roberto Jacobi
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 21/07136-1 - Emissions inventory of greenhouse gases from transport, dispersion in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo
• Grantee: Sergio Alejandro Ibarra Espinosa
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral