spatio-temporal analysis of cause-specific mortality in Sao Paulo State, Brazi

Author(s)

Gayawan, Ezra ^[1] ; Campos de Lima, Everton Emanuel ^[2]

Affiliation

^[1] Fed Univ Technol Akure, Dept Stat, Akure 340110, Ondo State - Nigeria

^[2] Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Filosofia & Ciencias Humanas, Nucleo Estudos Populacao Elza Berquo, Campinas, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Ciênc. saúde coletiva; v. 27, n. 1, p. 287-298, JAN 2022.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Using five cause-specific mortality data sourced by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and over 17 years period, we applied Bayesian spa -tio-temporal models on 644 municipalities of the state of Sao Paulo, using logistic model to the binary outcome that specifies whether or not the death was from a specific cause. We modeled the temporal mortality effects using B-splines, while the spatial components were considered through Gaussian and Markov random field, and inference was based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate consistent downward trend in mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases and external causes, while those from neoplasms and respiratory are rising. Cardiovascular is the only cause-specific death that is kept constant in time. All the causes of death considered show heterogeneous spatial and temporal variations among the municipalities, which sometimes change considerably within successive years. Mortality from infectious diseases clustered around the Northwestern municipalities in 2000, but changes to the Southeastern part in 2016, a similar development as external death causes. The study identifies areas with increased and decreased odds mortality and could be useful in disease monitoring, especially if we consider small spatial units. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/18649-7 - Small area analysis of levels and dispersion in cause-specific mortality in Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa with bayesian models for proportion data
• Grantee: Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - International