Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use

Author(s)

de Castro, Aline Anderson ; von Randow, Celso ; von Randow, Rita de Cassia Silva ; Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE; v. 4, p. 15-pg., 2022-09-16.

Abstract

Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasting future scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use change, especially over the Amazon. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 17/22269-2 - Transition to sustainability and agriculture-energy-water nexus: exploring an integrated approach with case studies in the Cerrado and Caatinga
• Grantee: Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 22/01655-0 - Fluxes of greenhouse gases in Amazonia combining flux towers and modeling of the land biosphere
• Grantee: Aline Anderson de Castro
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 20/15230-5 - Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation - RCG2I
• Grantee: Julio Romano Meneghini
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Research Centers in Engineering Program