| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Anunciacao, Paula Ribeiro
;
Ernst, Raffael
;
Martello, Felipe
;
Vancine, Mauricio Humberto
;
de Carvalho, Luis Marcelo Tavares
;
Ribeiro, Milton Cezar
Total Authors: 6
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION; v. 21, n. 4, p. 12-pg., 2023-11-21. |
| Abstract | |
Climate change is one of the key drivers of the dramatic erosion of global biodiversity. Poikilothermic organisms, such as amphibians, are particularly prone to alterations in temperature and precipitation and are therefore expected to be severely impacted by global climate change. We evaluated: i) the potential effects of climate change on taxonomic and functional richness of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, and ii) tested whether forest-dependent and open area species responded differently to climatic stressors. We applied an ensemble forecasting approach using point locality data to establish predictive maps of taxonomic and functional richness for different IPCC AR5 scenarios with two Representative Concentration Pathway trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) at two temporal projections (2050 and 2070). A significant decline in both taxonomic and functional richness of Atlantic Forest amphibians is expected over the coming decades under the evaluated climate scenarios. The core areas projected to maintain significantly high anuran richness in both components were in coastal high-altitude localities. We found negative effects (losses) to be more pronounced for taxonomic richness. Model outcomes indicate significant losses in both forest and open area species. A few remaining high-altitude sites will then play an important role as potential climatic refuges to safeguard anuran diversity, requiring a dynamic landscape approach as conservation strategy.(c) 2023 Associacao Brasileira de Ciencia Ecol ogica e Conservacao. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ). (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/08534-0 - Biodiversity and associated ecosystem services: LTER Corridor of Cantareira Mantiqueira |
| Grantee: | Milton Cezar Ribeiro |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/10639-5 - Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change |
| Grantee: | Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Grants - Research, Innovation and Dissemination Centers - RIDC |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/08322-3 - Visual analytics of environmental data collected with passive acoustic monitoring |
| Grantee: | Maria Cristina Ferreira de Oliveira |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 20/01779-5 - Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: agroecosystem effects on biodiversity conservation and ecosystem function maintenance |
| Grantee: | Milton Cezar Ribeiro |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/02883-7 - Effect of fragmentation on the persistence of anuran amphibians (Amphibia: Anura) within the Atlantic Forest |
| Grantee: | Maurício Humberto Vancine |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation |
| FAPESP's process: | 17/09676-8 - Effect of landscape modifications and climate changes on the persistence of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest |
| Grantee: | Maurício Humberto Vancine |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/10195-0 - Contribution of payment for ecosystem services on multi-dimensions within Atlantic Forest |
| Grantee: | Milton Cezar Ribeiro |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Projects - Thematic Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/50421-2 - New sampling methods and statistical tools for biodiversity research: integrating animal movement ecology with population and community ecology |
| Grantee: | Milton Cezar Ribeiro |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 22/01899-6 - Landscape structure as a predictor of taxonomic and functional diversity of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest |
| Grantee: | Maurício Humberto Vancine |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |
| FAPESP's process: | 22/10760-1 - Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: a synthesis on the effect of agriculture expansion within Cerrado and Atlantic Forest |
| Grantee: | Milton Cezar Ribeiro |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - Brazil |