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Consequences of non-Markovian healing processes on epidemic models with recurrent infections on networks

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Author(s):
Silva, Jose Carlos M. ; Silva, Diogo H. ; Rodrigues, Francisco A. ; Ferreira, Silvio C.
Total Authors: 4
Document type: Journal article
Source: NEW JOURNAL OF PHYSICS; v. 27, n. 1, p. 15-pg., 2025-01-01.
Abstract

Infectious diseases are marked by recovering time distributions which can be far from the exponential one associated with Markovian/Poisson processes, broadly applied in epidemic models. In the present work, we tackled this problem by investigating a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model on networks with eta independent infectious compartments (SI eta RS), each one with a Markovian dynamics, that leads to a Gamma-distributed recovering time. We analytically develop a theory for the epidemic lifespan on star graphs with a center and K leaves, which mimic hubs on networks, showing that the epidemic lifespan scales with a non-universal power-law. Compared with standard susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible dynamics, the epidemic lifespan on star graphs is severely reduced as the number of stages increases. In particular, the case eta ->infinity leads to a finite lifespan. Numerical simulations support the approximated analytical calculations. We investigated the SI eta RS dynamics on random power-law networks. When the epidemic processes are ruled by a maximum k-core activation, either the epidemic threshold or the epidemic localization pattern are unaltered. When hub mutual activation is at work, the localization is reduced but not sufficiently to alter the threshold scaling with the network size. Therefore, the activation mechanisms remain the same as in the case of Markovian healing. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 19/23293-0 - Prediction and inference in complex systems
Grantee:Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
FAPESP's process: 21/00369-0 - Localization in spreading processes on complex networks
Grantee:Diogo Henrique da Silva
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
FAPESP's process: 13/07375-0 - CeMEAI - Center for Mathematical Sciences Applied to Industry
Grantee:Francisco Louzada Neto
Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Research, Innovation and Dissemination Centers - RIDC