Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Two-Dimensional Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Spread

• Grant number: 18/03116-3
• Support type: Regular Research Grants
• Duration: May 01, 2019 - April 30, 2022
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal researcher: Fernando Luiz Pio dos Santos
• Grantee: Fernando Luiz Pio dos Santos
• Home Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IBB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Botucatu. Botucatu , SP, Brazil
• Assoc. researchers: Mostafa Bendahmane

Abstract

Dengue is a public health problem currently around the world. Especially in Brazil, the incidence is increasing and is the subject of intense research. The control strategies applied by government institutions are not being effective in reducing the population of dengue mosquitoes. Thus, the main objective of this work is to investigate the spread of dengue disease in Brazil, applying a control strategy in the population of the vector transmitter. For this, we propose a mathematical model described by a system of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), that describes the propagation dynamics of the dengue vector and their interactions with the human population, continuous in time and in two dimensions in the spatial variables. We also propose an optimal control strategy, considering different scenarios of the spread of dengue in Brazil. The model is solved numerically by applying the finite element method. From the numerical results obtained in this investigation, we hope to elucidate the dengue propagation process by visualizing the spatial variation of human population densities and infected mosquitoes in the different disease scenarios, in order to establish an optimized control strategy in the mosquito population. Finally, we expect to contribute with knowledge and with the development of a new tool able to generate new informations for effective actions in the prevention and control of the disease. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

CARDOSO, LISLAINE CRISTINA; CAMARGO, RUBENS FIGUEIREDO; PIO DOS SANTOS, FERNANDO LUIZ; CARVALHO DOS SANTOS, JOSE PAULO. Global stability analysis of a fractional differential system in hepatitis B. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 143, FEB 2021. Web of Science Citations: 0.

ADIMY, MOSTAFA; MANCERA, PAULO F. A.; RODRIGUES, DIEGO S.; SANTOS, FERNANDO L. P.; FERREIRA, CLAUDIA P. Maternal Passive Immunity and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Infants. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, v. 82, n. 2 JAN 28 2020. Web of Science Citations: 0.