Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Brazil: quantitative inputs for the design of public policies

• Grant number: 08/58107-7
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• Start date: June 01, 2009
• End date: May 31, 2013
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Agrarian and Natural Resource Economics
• Agreement: CNPq - Pronex
• Principal Investigator: Ricardo Abramovay
• Grantee: Ricardo Abramovay
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant(s): 11/52074-2 - Toby Gardner | Cambridge University - Inglaterra, AV.EXT; 10/17952-6 - Brazilian ethanol, food prices, and deforestation the Amazon, AV.EXT
• Associated scholarship(s): 11/11808-3 - Expansion of ethanol: quantification of direct and indirect land use changes, BP.PD; 10/00156-2 - Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Brazil: quantitative inputs for the design of public policies, BP.IC

Abstract

The study will estimate the socio-economic impacts of climate changes in Brazil and its regions. A trend scenario for the Brazilian economy and its regions will be produced, which will be the baseline for the analysis of climate changes. Changes in temperature, rainfall and other relevant climate aspects will be translated into changes in energy production and consumption, and into agricultural productivity. These two dimensions will be then produce economic changes in the regions, which will be captured by a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model. A set of social indicators will be associated to those changes in regional GDP and employment. These quantitative results will produce inputs for the simulation of the effects on the country, and on its regions, of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. Adaptation will be included in another fashion, involving the point of view of economic agents, exploring how different stimuli affect them. This will involve not only entrepreneurs (farmers, manufacturers) but also consumption (individuals and households). Knowledge of these quantitative impacts and the possible reactions to different stimuli will provide important information for the design of public policies and international negotiations strategies. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

HUNTINGFORD, CHRIS; ZELAZOWSKI, PRZEMYSLAW; GALBRAITH, DAVID; MERCADO, LINA M.; SITCH, STEPHEN; FISHER, ROSIE; LOMAS, MARK; WALKER, ANTHONY P.; JONES, CHRIS D.; BOOTH, BEN B. B.; et al. Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change. NATURE GEOSCIENCE, v. 6, n. 4, p. 268-273, APR 2013. (08/58107-7)