Climate services through knowledge co-production: a Euro-South American initiative for strengthening societal adaptation response to extreme events

• Grant number: 15/50687-8
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• Start date: July 01, 2016
• End date: December 31, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: Belmont Forum
• Principal Investigator: Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti
• Grantee: Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti
• Principal researcher abroad: Carolina Vera
• Institution abroad: Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos (IFAECI), Argentina
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant(s): 18/03153-6 - Knowledge coproduction in climate services: European experiences and the Brazilian scenario evaluation, AV.EXT
• Associated scholarship(s): 19/13528-0 - Evaluation of hindcasts in subseasonal timescale of Paraná and São Francisco basins, BP.IC; 17/11412-9 - Social processes related to reception, interpretation and appropriation of climate information by the national electric system actors, BP.IC; 17/03048-5 - Simulations of forest disturbances and land use change in the Amazon and possible impacts on the regional climate and rainfall in southeastern South America, BP.PD

Abstract

An inter- and trans-disciplinary framework based on a European-South American research cooperation is proposed to underpin climate services in South America. Climate variability patterns linking the South American Monsoon region, including Amazônia, with southeastern South America, influence climate extremes and impact several societal sectors. More than 200 million people live in the region that is one of the world largest agricultural producing region and where the second world largest hydroelectric power plant is situated. Besides recent progress, further efforts are needed to better understand and predict regional climate variability. Project objectives are: 1) to better understand the combined role of remote and local drivers on South America climate variability from sub-seasonal to decadal timescales, and its impact on the occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Special focus will be placed on an improved understanding of the effects of land use changes from the Amazon to the subtropics and their impact on extreme precipitation events; 2) to assess the predictability levels associated with regional climate pattern from sub-seasonal to decadal time scales; 3) to develop innovative regional prediction tools not only of climate variability but also of climate impact on both agriculture and hydrology in SSA on subseasonal and seasonal time scales; 4) to analyze climate knowledge co-production in order to revise how climate data are used by various stakeholders in their socio-cultural contexts; and 5) to analyze communication conditions of interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary process of knowledge co-production that determines the usefulness of climate information in the process innovative technologies will be codeveloped to produce products and tools by the project for the SSA-RCC, agriculture and hydropower sectors. The project will be implemented in the context of the Southern South America Regional Climate Centre, and will include actors from the national meteorological services, agriculture and energy stakeholders and organizations. (AU)

Scientific publications

(41)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

MARTINS, EDUARDO S. P. R.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; HAARSMA, REIN; OTTO, FRIEDERIKE E. L.; KING, ANDREW D.; VAN OLDENBORGH, GEERT JAN; KEW, SARAH; PHILIP, SJOUKJE; VASCONCELOS JUNIOR, FRANCISCO C.; CULLEN, HEIDI. A MULTIMETHOD ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF THE PROLONGED NORTHEAST BRAZIL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT (2012-16). BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, v. 99, n. 1, S, p. S65-S69, JAN 2018. (15/50687-8)

COELHO, CAIO A. S.; FIRPO, MARI A. F.; MAIA, ALINE H. N.; MACLACHLAN, CRAIG. Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 37, n. 1, p. 398-411, AUG 2017. (15/50687-8)

GEIRINHAS, JOAO L.; TRIGO, RICARDO M.; LIBONATI, RENATA; CASTRO, LUCAS C. O.; SOUSA, PEDRO M.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; PERES, LEONARDO F.; MAGALHAES, MONICA DE AVELAR F. M.. Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates. Science of The Total Environment, v. 650, n. 1, p. 796-808, FEB 10 2019. (15/01389-4, 15/50687-8)

ESCADA, PAULO; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; TADDEI, RENZO; DESSAI, SURAJE; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; DONATO, ROBERTO; KAYANO, MARY T.; MARTINS, EDUARDO S. P. R.; MIGUEL, JEAN C. H.; MONTEIRO, MARKO; et al. Climate services in Brazil: Past, present, and future perspectives. CLIMATE SERVICES, v. 24, DEC 2021. (15/50687-8, 16/24660-8, 18/03153-6)

ANDRADE, KELEN M.; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.. Atmospheric characteristics that induce extreme precipitation in frontal systems over Southeastern Brazil during summer: Observations and atmospheric model simulation. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 38, n. 14, p. 5368-5385, NOV 30 2018. (15/50687-8)

DE CASTRO, ALINE ANDERSON; CUARTAS, LUZ ADRIANA; COE, MICHAEL T.; VON RANDOW, CELSO; CASTANHO, ANDREA; OVANDO, ALEX; NOBRE, ANTONIO DONATO; KOUMROUYAN, ADRIANA; SAMPAIO, GILVAN; COSTA, MARCOS HEIL. Coupling the terrestrial hydrology model with biogeochemistry to the integrated LAND surface model: Amazon Basin applications. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, v. 63, n. 13-14, p. 1954-1966, OCT 26 2018. (15/50687-8)

ALVAREZ, M. S.; COELHO, C. A. S.; OSMAN, M.; FIRPO, M. A. F.; VERA, C. S.. Assessment of ECMWF Subseasonal Temperature Predictions for an Anomalously Cold Week Followed by an Anomalously Warm Week in Central and Southeastern South America during July 2017. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, v. 35, n. 5, p. 1871-1889, OCT 2020. (15/50687-8)

CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; SILVEIRA, VIRGINIA P.; FIGUEROA, SILVIO N.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; BONATTI, JOSE P.; DE SOUZA, DAYANA C.. Climate variability over South America-regional and large scale features simulated by the Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM-v0). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 40, n. 5, DEC 2019. (15/50687-8)

COELHO, CAIO A. S.; DE SOUZA, DAYANA C.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; COSTA, SIMONE M. S.; MENEZES, LAYRSON; GUIMARAES, BRUNO S.; FIGUEROA, SILVIO N.; BONATTI, JOSE P.; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; SAMPAIO, GILVAN; et al. Evaluation of climate simulations produced with the Brazilian global atmospheric model version 1.2. Climate Dynamics, v. 56, n. 3-4, p. 873-898, FEB 2021. (15/50687-8)

CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; BARRETO, NAURINETE J. C.; ALVAREZ, MARIANO S.; OSMAN, MARISOL; COELHO, CAIO A. S.. Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, v. 28, n. 4, JUL 2021. (15/50687-8)

BARRETO, NAURINETE J. C.; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; MESQUITA, MICHEL D. S.; PEDRA, GEORGE U.. Multivariate intraseasonal rainfall index applied to South America. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, v. 26, n. 4, p. 521-527, OCT 2019. (15/50687-8)

GUBLER, S.; SEDLMEIER, K.; BHEND, J.; AVALOS, G.; COELHO, C. A. S.; ESCAJADILLO, Y.; JACQUES-COPER, M.; MARTINEZ, R.; SCHWIERZ, C.; DE SKANSI, M.; et al. Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Forecast Performance over South America. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, v. 35, n. 2, p. 561-584, APR 2020. (15/50687-8)

PATTNAYAK, K. C.; GLOOR, E.; TINDALL, J. C.; BRIENEN, R. J. W.; BARICHIVICH, J.; BAKER, J. C. A.; SPRACKLEN, D. V.; CINTRA, B. B. L.; COELHO, C. A. S.. Adding new evidence to the attribution puzzle of the recent water shortage over Sao Paulo (Brazil). TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, v. 70, JUN 25 2018. (15/50687-8)

REZENDE, LUIZ F. C.; DE CASTRO, ALINE ANDERSON; VON RANDOW, CELSO; RUSCICA, ROMINA; SAKSCHEWSKI, BORIS; PAPASTEFANOU, PHILLIP; VIOVY, NICOLAS; THONICKE, KIRSTEN; SORENSSON, ANNA; RAMMIG, ANJA; et al. Impacts of Land Use Change and Atmospheric CO2 on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Evaporation, and Climate in Southern Amazon. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, v. 127, n. 8, p. 22-pg., 2022-04-27. (17/22269-2, 15/50687-8, 17/03048-5)

MASTERSON-ALGAR, PATRICIA; JENKINS, STUART R.; WINDLE, GILL; MORRIS-WEBB, ELISABETH; TAKAHASHI, CAMILA K.; BURKE, TRYS; ROSA, ISABEL; MARTINEZ, ALINE S.; TORRES-MATTOS, EMANUELA B.; TADDEI, RENZO; et al. When One Health Meets the United Nations Ocean Decade: Global Agendas as a Pathway to Promote Collaborative Interdisciplinary Research on Human-Nature Relationships. FRONTIERS IN PSYCHOLOGY, v. 13, p. 7-pg., 2022-04-06. (15/50687-8, 17/50220-8, 16/11947-7, 14/50848-9)

GUIMARAES, BRUNO DOS SANTOS; COELHO, CAIO AUGUSTO DOS SANTOS; WOOLNOUGH, STEVEN JAMES; KUBOTA, PAULO YOSHIO; BASTARZ, CARLOS FREDERICO; FIGUEROA, SILVIO NILO; BONATTI, JOSE PAULO; DE SOUZA, DAYANA CASTILHO. An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. Climate Dynamics, v. 56, n. 7-8, JAN 2021. (15/50687-8)

SAMPAIO, GILVAN; SHIMIZU, MARILIA H.; GUIMARAES-JUNIOR, CARLOS A.; ALEXANDRE, FELIPE; GUATURA, MARCELO; CARDOSO, MANOEL; DOMINGUES, TOMAS F.; RAMMIG, ANJA; VON RANDOW, CELSO; REZENDE, LUIZ F. C.; et al. CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon. BIOGEOSCIENCES, v. 18, n. 8, p. 2511-2525, APR 22 2021. (15/02537-7, 15/50687-8, 17/03048-5, 15/50122-0)

TALAMONI, ISABELLA L.; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; DE SOUZA, DAYANA C.; BAKER, JESSICA C. A.; VIEIRA, RITA M. S. P.. Surface and atmospheric patterns for early and late rainy season onset years in South America. Climate Dynamics, v. N/A, p. 16-pg., 2022-03-26. (15/50687-8)

CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; REZENDE, LUIZ FELIPE; GOMES, JORGE L.; VON RANDOW, CELSO. Potential applications for climate services originated from the CLIMAX project. FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, v. 4, p. 11-pg., 2022-10-10. (15/50687-8, 17/03048-5)

KLINGAMAN, NICHOLAS P.; YOUNG, MATTHEW; CHEVUTURI, AMULYA; GUIMARAES, BRUNO; GUO, LIANG; WOOLNOUGH, STEVEN J.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; HOLLOWAY, CHRISTOPHER E.. Subseasonal Prediction Performance for Austral Summer South American Rainfall. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, v. 36, n. 1, p. 23-pg., 2021-02-01. (15/50687-8)

BAKER, JESSICA C. A.; DE SOUZA, DAYANA CASTILHO; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; BUERMANN, WOLFGANG; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; ANDREWS, MARTIN B.; GLOOR, MANUEL; GARCIA-CARRERAS, LUIS; FIGUEROA, SILVIO N.; SPRACKLEN, DOMINICK, V. An Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Interactions over South America Using Satellites, Reanalysis, and Two Global Climate Models. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, v. 22, n. 4, p. 18-pg., 2021-04-01. (15/50687-8)

RODRIGUES, LUIS R. L.; DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO J.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.. Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe. Climate Dynamics, v. 53, n. 12, p. 16-pg., 2019-12-01. (15/50687-8)

COELHO, CAIO A. S.; FIRPO, MARI A. F.; MAIA, ALINE H. N.; MACLACHLAN, CRAIG. Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 37, p. 14-pg., 2017-08-01. (15/50687-8)

OSMAN, MARISOL; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; VERA, CAROLINA S.. Calibration and combination of seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America using Ensemble Regression. Climate Dynamics, JUN 2021. (15/50687-8)

RODRIGUES, LUIS R. L.; DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO J.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.. Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe. Climate Dynamics, v. 53, n. 12, SI, p. 7305-7320, DEC 2019. (15/50687-8)

COELHO, CAIO A. S.; FIRPO, MARI A. F.; DE ANDRADE, FELIPE M.. A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal precipitation predictions. METEOROLOGISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT, v. 27, n. 6, p. 503-520, 2018. (15/50687-8)

SCRICCO, IARA M.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.. Summer daily precipitation and wet day climatological features in southeast SAo Paulo, Brazil. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 137, n. 3-4, p. 1997-2010, AUG 2019. (15/50687-8)

FREIRE, JULLIANA L. M.; LONGO, KARLA M.; FREITAS, SAULO R.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; MOLOD, ANDREA M.; MARSHAK, JELENA; DA SILVA, ARLINDO; RIBEIRO, BRUNO Z.. To What Extent Biomass Burning Aerosols Impact South America Seasonal Climate Predictions?. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 47, n. 16, AUG 28 2020. (15/50687-8)

PAES DOS SANTOS, ANA PAULA; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; PINTO JUNIOR, OSMAR; QUADROS DOS SANTOS, SERGIO RODRIGO; LOPES DE LIMA, FRANCISCO JOSE; DE SOUZA, EVERALDO BARREIROS. Climatic diagnostics associated with anomalous lightning incidence during the summer 2012/2013 in Southeast Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 38, n. 2, p. 996-1009, FEB 2018. (15/50687-8, 13/09557-8)

WHITE, CHRISTOPHER J.; DOMEISEN, DANIELA I., V; ACHARYA, NACHIKETA; ADEFISAN, ELIJAH A.; ANDERSON, MICHAEL L.; AURA, STELLA; BALOGUN, AHMED A.; BERTRAM, DOUGLAS; BLUHM, SONIA; BRAYSHAW, DAVID J.; et al. Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, v. 103, n. 6, p. 25-pg., 2022-06-01. (15/50687-8)

CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA F. A.; SOUZA, DAYANA C.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; FIGUEROA, SILVIO N.; BAKER, JESSICA C. A.. The global monsoon system representation in BAM-v1.2 and HadGEM3 climate simulations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. N/A, p. 23-pg., 2022-06-14. (15/50687-8)

FREIRE, JULLIANA L. M.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; FREITAS, SAULO R.; ALVES, RITA C. M.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.. Assessing the contribution of dynamical downscaling to austral autumn Northeast Brazil seasonal precipitation prediction performance. CLIMATE SERVICES, v. 27, p. 17-pg., 2022-08-06. (15/50687-8)

MARTINS, EDUARDO S. P. R.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; HAARSMA, REIN; OTTO, FRIEDERIKE E. L.; KING, ANDREW D.; VAN OLDENBORGH, GEERT JAN; KEW, SARAH; PHILIP, SJOUKJE; VASCONCELOS JUNIOR, FRANCISCO C.; CULLEN, HEIDI. A MULTIMETHOD ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF THE PROLONGED NORTHEAST BRAZIL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT (2012-16). BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, v. 99, n. 1, p. 5-pg., 2018-01-01. (15/50687-8)

CHEVUTURI, AMULYA; KLINGAMAN, NICHOLAS P.; WOOLNOUGH, STEVEN J.; RUDORFF, CONRADO M.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; SCHONGART, JOCHEN. Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions. CLIMATE SERVICES, v. 30, p. 12-pg., 2023-01-30. (15/50687-8)

GEIRINHAS, JOAO L.; TRIGO, RICARDO M.; LIBONATI, RENATA; CASTRO, LUCAS C. O.; SOUSA, PEDRO M.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; PERES, LEONARDO F.; MAGALHAES, MONICA DE AVELAR F. M.. Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates. Science of The Total Environment, v. 650, p. 13-pg., 2019-02-10. (15/01389-4, 15/50687-8)

GUIMARAES, BRUNO S.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; WOOLNOUGH, STEVEN J.; KUBOTA, PAULO Y.; BASTARZ, CARLOS F.; FIGUEROA, SILVIO N.; BONATTI, JOSE P.; DE SOUZA, DAYANA C.. Configuration and hindcast quality assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction system. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, v. 146, n. 728, A, p. 1067-1084, APR 2020. (15/50687-8)

RUSCICA, ROMINA C.; SORENSSON, ANNA A.; DIAZ, LEANDRO B.; VERA, CAROLINA; CASTRO, ALINE; PAPASTEFANOU, PHILLIP; RAMMIG, ANJA; REZENDE, LUIZ F. C.; SAKSCHEWSKI, BORIS; THONICKE, KIRSTEN; et al. Evapotranspiration trends and variability in southeastern South America: The roles of land-cover change and precipitation variability. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, SEP 2021. (15/50687-8, 17/03048-5)

LUIZ-SILVA, WANDERSON; OSCAR-JUNIOR, ANTONIO CARLOS; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA FONSECA ALBUQUERQUE; TREISTMAN, FELIPE. An overview of precipitation climatology in Brazil: space-time variability of frequency and intensity associated with atmospheric systems. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, v. 66, n. 2, p. 289-308, JAN 25 2021. (15/50687-8)

GOMES, MARIAH SOUZA; CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA FONSECA DE ALBUQUERQUE; MULLER, GABRIELA V.. 2019/2020 drought impacts on South America and atmospheric and oceanic influences. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES, v. 34, DEC 2021. (15/50687-8)

GEIRINHAS, JOAO L.; TRIGO, RICARDO M.; LIBONATI, RENATA; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; PALMEIRA, ANA CRISTINA. Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 38, n. 4, p. 1760-1776, MAR 30 2018. (15/50687-8, 15/01389-4)

OSMAN, MARISOL; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; VERA, CAROLINA S.. Calibration and combination of seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America using Ensemble Regression. Climate Dynamics, v. 57, n. 9-10, p. 2889-2904, NOV 2021. (15/50687-8)