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Simulations of forest disturbances and land use change in the Amazon and possible impacts on the regional climate and rainfall in southeastern South America

Grant number: 17/03048-5
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
Effective date (Start): May 01, 2017
Effective date (End): April 30, 2019
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
Cooperation agreement: Belmont Forum
Principal Investigator:Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti
Grantee:Luiz Felipe Campos de Rezende
Home Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
Associated research grant:15/50687-8 - Climate services through knowledge co-production: a Euro-South American initiative for strengthening societal adaptation response to extreme events, AP.TEM

Abstract

The characteristics of the terrestrial surface are strongly connected to the patterns of climatic circulation and climatic variability. Changes in land use affect the biophysical characteristics of the earth's surface. In the Amazon, the loss of forests contributes significantly to the reduction of precipitation in the continent, due to the decrease of the evapotranspiration, mainly during the dry season. The humidity of the Amazon is also important in agricultural production and in the agroforestry system in Southeast South America (SESA - Southeastern South America). The Inland surface model that is being developed in collaboration with several institutions (including INPE) aims to represent important biomes of South America such as the Amazon, the Cerrado and the Caatinga. Inland will be coupled to the CPTEC Atmospheric Global Circulation Model to simulate the interaction between biosphere and atmosphere. Using Inland, climate modeling and moisture recycling networks, we will study the influence of land use change and forest degradation in consequence from deforestation and fires on SESA precipitation. It is necessary to quantify the variation of the precipitation in the SESA, due to these effects of degradation of the Amazon forest. Still is necessary to quantify how the climatic changes and impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect the forest (mortality, productivity and evapotranspiration). We hope this project will contribute to the understanding of SESA precipitation variation and the possible impacts on the Amazonian regional climate. (AU)