Impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of streams in Southeastern Brazil

• Grant number: 16/02877-5
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2016
• End date: February 28, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering
• Principal Investigator: Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz
• Grantee: Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha ; Marisa de Cassia Piccolo ; Plínio Barbosa de Camargo ; Ricardo de Oliveira Figueiredo

Abstract

This study is used the hydrological model of Fu (1981) based on the hypothesis Budyko (Budyko, 1948, 1974) relating to climate change and the impact on the streams flow from multiple locations in southeastern Brazil. The hypothesis is that this model can be validated with local data of southeastern Brazil, enabling the identification of critical factors to the stability of the water production in micro-watersheds and the prediction of water balance behavior in changing conditions land use and climate change. Additionally the quality of surface water will be studied, since changes in hydro-biogeochemistry watersheds resulting from inadequate management practices are aggravating factors of this quality deterioration and may limit the use of water resources. The objectives of this study are: (i) to calibrate and validate the model of Fu with climate data and flow of existing watersheds in southeastern Brazil; (ii) simulate future climate scenarios and calculate the impacts of global warming on the hydrological regime of watersheds in southeastern Brazil; (iii) conduct a regional mapping, characterizing and establishing hydrological indicators of responsiveness to management in micro-watersheds; (iv) improve the Fu model by inserting biological variables such as leaf area of vegetation surrounding the watersheds, to become more sensitive to short-scale simulations of time and for small and medium watersheds and (v) complement diagnosis of responsiveness to management in watersheds through hydro-biogeochemistry evaluation, including analysis of dissolved and particulate matter transported by waterways permanent and intermittent water. (AU)

Scientific publications

(5)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

SANTOS, GLAUCIA REGINA; GENTIL OTTO, MARINA SHINKAI; DE SOUZA PASSOS, JOSE RAIMUNDO; ONOFRE, FELIPE FERREIRA; RODRIGUES, VALDEMIR ANTONIO; DE PAULA, FELIPE ROSSETTI; DE BARROS FERRAZ, SILVIO FROSINI. Changes in decomposition rate and litterfall in riparian zones with different basal area of exotic Eucalyptus in south-eastern Brazil. SOUTHERN FORESTS, v. 81, n. 4, JULY 2019. (16/02877-5)

FERRAZ, SILVIO F. B.; RODRIGUES, CAROLINA B.; GARCIA, LARA G.; PENA-SIERRA, DIANA; FRANSOZI, ALINE; OGASAWARA, MATHEUS E. K.; VASQUEZ, KATHERINE; MOREIRA, RILDO M.; CASSIANO, CARLA C.. How do management alternatives of fast-growing forests affect water quantity and quality in southeastern Brazil? Insights from a paired catchment experiment. Hydrological Processes, v. 35, n. 9, SEP 2021. (16/02877-5, 13/22679-5, 15/23719-6)

OGASAWARA, MATHEUS E. K.; SANTOS, GLAUCIA R.; CASSIANO, CARLA C.; WEMPLE, BEVERLEY C.; FERRAZ, SILVIO F. B.. Runoff and sediment yield from forested catchments under varying management intensities: Insights from a subtropical region of Brazil. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, v. 32, n. 2, p. 628-639, JAN 30 2021. (16/02877-5)

GARCIA, LARA GABRIELLE; SALEMI, LUIZ FELIPPE; LIMA, WALTER DE PAULA; DE BARROS FERRAZ, SILVIO FROSINI. Hydrological effects of forest plantation clear-cut on water availability: Consequences for downstream water users. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES, v. 19, p. 17-24, OCT 2018. (16/02877-5, 12/07428-3)

LOPES, BRUNA SANTOS; CORREA, KARLMER A. B.; KINCHOKU OGASAWARA, MATHEUS EIJII; PRECINOTO, RAIZA SALOMAO; CASSIANO, CARLA CRISTINA; SELL, BRUNA MOREIRA; MELO, RENATA SIQUEIRA; DOS REIS OLIVEIRA, PAULA CAROLINE; DE BARROS FERRAZ, SILVIO FROSINI. How does land use cover change affect hydrological response in the Atlantic Forest? Implications for ecological restoration. FRONTIERS IN WATER, v. 4, p. 14-pg., 2022-10-03. (21/09086-1, 16/02877-5, 19/25466-9, 18/10751-7)