Analysis of climate change projections from the IPCC Fifth Report inside Brazilian protected areas

• Grant number: 12/08250-3
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Effective date (Start): August 01, 2012
• Effective date (End): July 31, 2013
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: David Montenegro Lapola
• Grantee: Fernanda Sueko Ogawa
• Home Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Modifications in the pattern of distribution of species, communities and even biomes are among the impacts of climate change projected for this century. Such impacts will happen, without distinction, both in- and outside protected areas. The Brazilian conservation units (UCs) are organized within the National System of Conservation Units (SNUC). However the federal law 9985/2000 which regulates the SNUC does not comprise the occurrence of climatic changes, neither probable actions that could be taken to overcome this problem inside UCs. Therefore, this project aims, in a pioneer fashion, at initiating investigations on the climatic changes to occur inside protected areas in a countrywide scale. For that a geographical analysis of the projected changes in temperature and precipitation, from various IPCC climate models of the IPCC fifth report will be carried out, having as spatial domain the UCs registered within SNUC and indigenous lands. Such analysis will focus on the several types of protected areas, as well as on the geographic macro-regions of Brazil.We also intend, in the end of this project, to select from 1 to 3 protected areas to present and discuss our results with the managers, as a way to search for solutions for the problem on the local and regional scale. This study will be the first step towards future deeper investigations on the issue, involving the impacts of such climatic changes on the vegetation of protected areas.