This research project aims to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of notified AIDS cases between the years 2000 to 2008 in São Paulo, SP, considering 96 Administrative Districts, as well as their associations with sociodemographic characteristics and social vulnerability of these areas. This is an ecological study. The tools used for estimating incidence rates and data analysis are Bayesian regression models that incorporate temporal and spatial effects. These models include random effects with a CAR (autoregressive conditional) normal distribution that capture the influence of adjacent areas on the number of cases reported in each region. Estimates of model parameters will be obtained by the method of stochastic simulation MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo). Are also performed stratified analyzes by sex and age groups (18 years, 19 to 59 years, 60 years or more), based on the same regression models, which will be explored changes among the incidence ratios of disease among men and women over time and how the incidence of AIDS have changed within the period in each of the age ranges. The results will be useful to support the planning of health policies and actions directed towards the control of AIDS in areas and populations at risk in São Paulo.
News published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the scholarship: