Risk of dengue for tourists in Brazil during FIFA World Cup 2014 and Olympic Games - Rio 2016, using mathematical modeling

• Grant number: 12/18463-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)
• Start date: December 01, 2012
• End date: March 31, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Epidemiology
• Principal Investigator: Eduardo Massad
• Grantee: Raphael Ximenes
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina (FM). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

World Health Organization stimulates that three billion people are currently living in risk areas to contract dengue all over the world, and that anualy, 50 million infections occur, with 500.000 Hemorragic Dengue's Fever (FHD), and 21000 deaths, mainly in children [1]. Although the Dengue's virus is expanding in geographical scale the last four decades, there aren't still medications or licensed vaccines and free from vectorial interventions consistently efficient for combating Dengue, that is caused by four antigenically distinct viral sorotypes [2]. Face to this scenario dengue's modeling has been had useful to help us understand the virus's dynamics and in generating new hypothesis about the reason why the dynamic exhibits some irregularities, both in short and long term. Nevertheless, when compared to diseases such as flu or malaria, the dengue's modeling literature is scarce and directed to a small number of topics. And these dengue's models are rarely analysed with a public health's concern, and too few modeling studies have been used to evaluate interventions with dengue [2]. So, this project has the objective to use mathematical modeling technics to estimate the risk for travelers to contract dengue in Brazil during the FIFA World's Cup - 2014, in each of the 12 host cities, and during the Rio de Janeiro's Olympics in 2016. It will be used as basis an adaptation from the mathematical model developed by Massad et al. [3]. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

XIMENES, RAPHAEL; AMAKU, MARCOS; LOPEZ, LUIS FERNANDEZ; BEZERRA COUTINHO, FRANCISCO ANTONIO; BURATTINI, MARCELO NASCIMENTO; GREENHALGH, DAVID; WILDER-SMITH, ANNELIES; STRUCHINER, CLAUDIO JOSE; MASSAD, EDUARDO. The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v. 16, APR 29 2016. (12/18463-4)

BURATTINI, M. N.; COUTINHO, F. A. B.; LOPEZ, L. F.; XIMENES, R.; QUAM, M.; WILDER-SMITH, A.; MASSAD, E.. Potential exposure to Zika virus for foreign tourists during the 2016 Carnival and Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, v. 144, n. 9, p. 1904-1906, JUL 2016. (12/18463-4)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

XIMENES, Raphael. Risco de dengue para turistas no Brasil na Copa do Mundo da FIFA 2014 e nos Jogos Olímpicos Rio 2016, utilizando modelagem matemática. 2017. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina (FM/SBD) São Paulo.