Projections of risk of sugarcane production in the state of São Paulo based on future climate scenarios

• Grant number: 13/16465-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: December 01, 2013
• End date: February 28, 2015
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Helena Maria Soares Pinto
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) is a culture of social and economic relevance for Brazil, moving about 80 billion dollars per year. The State of São Paulo is the largest national producer of products derived from sugar cane in Brazil, benefited by the proximity to the main center Brazilian consumer and ports used for export of sugar and alcohol. Between 2003 and 2008, it was observed the expansion of sugar cane for regions where the production environments are less favorable. The management and planning of expansion of culture in these new areas, as well as involve aspects economic-financial, environmental and social, must also take into account the productivity achievable for the region and the risk of economic loss associated with the activity. In this regard, the computational modeling is a technique popular in various areas of knowledge (Bezuidenhout and Baier, 2011) used to produce innovative improvements and assist in decision making. The agricultural systems by maintaining direct dependence with the climatic variables, may suffer severe changes due to climate change (IPCC, 2007), which will cause impacts that may have an economic and social importance that far outweighs their probability of occurrence apparent (Thornton et al. , 2009). This scenario of most fragile climate is especially important for cultures with longer cycle times, more exposed to climatic risks, as is the case of sugarcane (MARIN and NASSIF, 2013). The proposal of this project is to assess the climatic risk for the cultivation of sugarcane, in the current conditions and climatic changes, for producing region of sugarcane in the State of São Paulo.

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

PINTO, Helena Maria Soares. Assessing the risks for sugarcane production in the State of São Paulo based on multimodel simulations and future climate scenarios. 2015. Master's Dissertation - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC) Piracicaba.