Modelling the impact of drug treatment and demographic factors on the HIV vertical transmission

• Grant number: 15/24641-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• Start date: April 01, 2016
• End date: April 30, 2016
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Mathematics - Applied Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Silvia Martorano Raimundo
• Grantee: Silvia Martorano Raimundo
• Host Investigator: Ezio Venturino
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina (FM). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Università degli Studi di Torino (UNITO), Italy

Abstract

The dynamics of HIV vertical transmission is analyzed using a mathematical model.We developed a model to represent the natural course of HIV infection, coupling transmission of HIV through the male and females "core-groups". In this project the epidemiology of infectious diseases, represented by researcher of FMUSP/DIM, join up with both mathematical and numerical theories of the researcher Università degli Studi di Torino, Dipartimento di Matematica, Torino, Italy. In addition to the mathematical aspects, this project involves an important epidemiological focus. Based on the situation of the HIV infection there is also a refinement limited only to the HIV vertical transmission by way of simplifying the general model, such that the "core groups"' are the seropositive pregnant women and their females newborns. The model is formulated from basic biological assumptions and analyzed qualitatively in order to investigate the effectiveness of health policy on HIV positive women. Weakening the standard mass-action incidence (horizontal transmission route) assumption allows for a system of linear ordinary differential equations. The model predicts that strategies of prevention like drug treatment and AIDS education may be a powerful tool to reduce the risk of HIV vertical transmission.