Integrated modelling and economic impacts of low carbon options for the transport sector in the State of São Paulo

• Grant number: 18/17714-0
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): October 01, 2018
• Effective date (End): September 30, 2020
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Cooperation agreement: BG E&P Brasil (Shell Group)
• Principal Investigator: Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos
• Grantee: Régis Rathmann
• Home Institution: Instituto de Energia e Ambiente (IEE). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 14/50279-4 - Brasil Research Centre for Gas Innovation, AP.PCPE

Abstract

The Paris Agreement to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was approved during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21), within the scope of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aiming at limiting the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as well as pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Brazil deposited the Instrument of Ratification of the Paris Agreement in September 2016, and the Agreement entered into force at the international level in November 2016. In this Agreement, Brazil signed up to adopting measures to reduce GHG emissions by means of a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The Brazilian NDC pledges to reduce GHG emissions by 37% below 2005 levels in 2025 and 43% in 2030. Meeting the targets will require a significant improvement in the infrastructure and energy efficiency associated with the transportation sector. As the state of São Paulo is the most representative in terms of the national GHG emissions of this sector, it is relevant to evaluate possibilities of abatement of emissions. In this sense, the objective is to model possibilities and impacts of the implementation of low carbon options in the transportation sector, which should cover energy efficiency, modal shift and fuel substitution. The abatement costs and economic impacts of the adoption of low carbon activities in the state of São Paulo will be measured, for which a hybrid model is proposed through soft-link between economic, energy and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors.