Mathematical models in Population Biology from time-series: applications to Epidemiology and Ecology

• Grant number: 17/26770-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: November 01, 2018
• End date: January 31, 2022
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics - General Physics
• Principal Investigator: Roberto André Kraenkel
• Grantee: Caroline Franco
• Host Institution: Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de São Paulo. São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 16/01343-7 - ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research: a regional center for theoretical physics, AP.ESP
• Associated scholarship(s): 19/26310-2 - Modelling towards elimination of malaria in Brazilian Amazon, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

This is a project abut mathematical model in Biology, especially in Epidemiology and Ecology. Its focus is on time-series, either of numbers of cases of an infectious disease, either of population levels. We intend to build models and use refined, state-of-art, techniques of fitting for time-series of cases os Malaria and Dengue. Another topic is the use of dynamical systems theory (attractor reconstruction) to investigate causal relations between time-series. Finally, on a more prospective way, we plan to build causality networks from data. (AU)

Scientific publications

(5)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

SOUTO FERREIRA, LEONARDO; CANTON, OTAVIO; DA SILVA, RAFAEL LOPES PAIXAO; POLONI, SILAS; SUDBRACK, VITOR; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO; FRANCO, CAROLINE; MARQUITTI, FLAVIA MARIA DARCIE; DE MORAES, JOSE CASSIO; VERAS, MARIA AMELIA DE SOUSA MASCENA; et al. Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, v. 18, n. 3, p. 15-pg., 2022-03-01. (17/26770-8, 18/24037-4, 16/01343-7, 18/26512-1, 18/23984-0, 19/26310-2)

AGUAS, RICARDO; WHITE, LISA; HUPERT, NATHANIEL; SHRETTA, RIMA; PAN-NGUM, WIRICHADA; CELHAY, OLIVIER; MOLDOKMATOVA, AINURA; ARIFI, FATIMA; MIRZAZADEH, ALI; SHARIFI, HAMID; et al. Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach. BMJ GLOBAL HEALTH, v. 5, n. 12, 2020. (17/26770-8)

COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES; DARCIE MARQUITTI, FLAVIA MARIA; FERREIRA, LEONARDO SOUTO; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO; PAIXAO DA SILVA, RAFAEL LOPES; CANTON, OTAVIO; PORTELLA, TATIANA P.; POLONI, SILAS; FRANCO, CAROLINE; PLUCINSKI, MATEUSZ M.; et al. Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant. COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE, v. 1, n. 1, p. 8-pg., 2021-11-15. (18/26512-1, 19/26310-2, 17/26770-8, 16/01343-7, 18/24037-4)

FRANCO, CAROLINE; FERREIRA, LEONARDO SOUTO; SUDBRACK, VITOR; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO; POLONI, SILAS; PRADO, PAULO INACIO; WHITE, LISA J.; AGUAS, RICARDO; KRAENKEL, ROBERTO ANDRE; COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES. Percolation across households in mechanistic models of non-pharmaceutical interventions in SARS-CoV-2 disease dynamics. EPIDEMICS, v. 39, p. 8-pg., 2022-03-21. (17/26770-8, 18/24037-4, 19/26310-2, 18/23984-0, 16/01343-7)

FLAVIA MARIA DARCIE MARQUITTI; RENATO MENDES COUTINHO; LEONARDO SOUTO FERREIRA; MARCELO EDUARDO BORGES; TATIANA PINEDA PORTELLA; RAFAEL LOPES PAIXÃO DA SILVA; OTAVIO CANTON; SILAS POLONI; CAROLINE FRANCO; VERÔNICA COELHO; et al. O Brasil perante as novas variantes de SARS-CoV-2: emergências e desafios em saúde pública. Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, v. 24, 2021-06-07. (18/24037-4, 16/01343-7, 19/26310-2, 18/26512-1, 17/26770-8)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

FRANCO, Caroline. Mathematical modelling of epidemiological systems: from data and equations to public health implications. 2022. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp). Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT). São Paulo São Paulo.