Analysis of spatial diffusion of yellow fever epidemic in the state of São Paulo, 2016 to 2018

• Grant number: 18/20305-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: January 01, 2019
• End date: December 31, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Public Health
• Principal Investigator: Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto
• Grantee: Alec Brian Lacerda
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Yellow fever (YF) is a non-contagious viral disease of short duration and unstable severity, being mild and, in some cases, severe, in which it typically presents with jaundice and bleeding, being able to have deaths due to viscerotropic disease. The last epidemic, which began in late 2016, recorded 1.904 of human cases, with 547 deaths and 2.116 epizootic cases in Brazil, mainly in the Southeast, extending to 2018. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have become important tools for monitoring and fighting diseases, along to spatial diffusion, being a way of observing the process of spreading a phenomenon in a space and through time. This study aims to evaluate the spatial diffusion process of YF in humans and non-human primates in the state of São Paulo from 2016 to 2018. This study aims to identify the starting point of YF disease epidemic and describe the diffusion process spatial distribution in the studied epidemic. It is an ecological study whose initial descriptive analysis was performed to observe the behavior of the YF virus, based on the number of notifications by municipalities, separated by month and year, making it possible to know the municipalities where the virus was most active. Thematic maps will be created in order to demonstrate and identify how YF virus spread throughout the state of São Paulo and then identify the initial entry point of the virus within the state by observing the pathways by which the virus has traveled. The objective of this study is to understand the space-time process in the state of São Paulo, analyzing its flow and identifying its spatial diffusion.