Advanced search
Start date

Development of predictive models for the dynamics of transmission and spatial dispersion of the sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil.

Grant number: 18/18751-6
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
Effective date (Start): March 01, 2019
Effective date (End): February 28, 2023
Field of knowledge:Biological Sciences - Parasitology - Entomology and Malacology of Parasites and Vectors
Principal Investigator:Mauro Toledo Marrelli
Grantee:Antônio Ralph Medeiros de Sousa
Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
Associated scholarship(s):21/10379-3 - Development of a spatially explicit agent-based model to investigate the spread of yellow fever virus between fragmented landscapes, BE.EP.PD


The current sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in southeastern Brazil has caused a significant number of deaths in humans and non-human primates, including notifications in areas previously considered free of the disease, such as the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The development of models to simulate and predict the transmission and dispersal dynamics of the yellow fever virus may be an alternative both for testing as for proposing new hypotheses about the ecology and epidemiology of the disease, as well as the ability to predict risk situations and identify priority issues to be investigated in empirical studies. Agent-Based Models have been used in many fields of science, given their potential to dynamically represent spatial heterogeneity, the complexity of interactions between individuals, and the patterns that emerge from such interactions. The present proposal aims at the development of Agent-Based Models to test hypotheses and predict the transmission behavior and dispersion of sylvatic yellow fever. Using an object-oriented programming language, a scenario will be developed in which the virus circulates between individual agents represented by vertebrate hosts and vectors of different environments. These models will be parameterized, validated and integrated to a Geographic Information System, allowing simulating the transmission dynamics on an explicit representation of the physical environment in which the viral activity has been observed. Hypotheses will be tested regarding the risk of re-urbanization of yellow fever and the role that humans play in the spread of the virus.

News published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the scholarship:
Articles published in other media outlets (0 total):
More itemsLess items

Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
MEDEIROS-SOUSA, ANTONIO RALPH; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES; MUCCI, LUIS FILIPE; MARRELLI, MAURO TOLEDO. A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the Atlantic Forest: Exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 15, n. 2, . (14/50444-5, 15/18630-6, 18/18751-6)

Please report errors in scientific publications list by writing to: