Simulation of the Impact of Climate Change on Maize in the Brazilian Midwest.

• Grant number: 24/14588-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2024
• End date: October 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Isabelle de Oliveira Bonaldi
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

It is undeniable that topics such as climate change, its impacts, and mitigation plans are frequently in the spotlight, especially in the agricultural sector concerning food security. This project aims to evaluate the performance of second-crop corn under future climate scenarios for three cities that stand out in production in the Brazilian Midwest: Sorriso (MT), Rio Verde (GO), and Maracaju (MS). First, it will be necessary to construct a soil and climate database for each of the mentioned cities. With the support of the CLIMBra database, future scenarios will be simulated using CMIP6 - a group of global circulation models - under RCP 4.5 (intermediate emissions) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions) pathways, covering the historical period from 1980 to 2013 and the future period from 2015 to 2100. Subsequently, using the generated future scenarios, the CERES-Maize crop model will simulate potential productivity, yield, and risk to assess essential variables for decision-making, not only for producers but also for policymakers. Thus, given its importance as a commodity to the country, this approach aims to promote new management practices and strategies, guiding the future viability of the crop.