Full text
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| Author(s): |
Alex Jones Flores Cassenote
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina (FM/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2017-09-28 |
| Examining board members: |
Aluisio Augusto Cotrim Segurado;
Cassia Maria Buchalla;
Euclides Ayres de Castilho;
Raul Dias dos Santos Filho
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| Advisor: | Aluisio Augusto Cotrim Segurado; Jair Minoro Abe |
| Abstract | |
Introduction: with the advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) a profound impact on the natural history of HIV infection was observed. The use of combined therapeutic regimens containing antiretroviral drugs of different classes promotes important and sustained suppression of viral replication, leading to immune restauration and increases survival and the quality of life of people living with HIV (PLWH). Objectives: This study aims to analyze and characterize the endocrinological and metabolic changes associated with the use of antiretroviral drugs in PLWH and to develop intelligent computational algorithms for their identification and prediction. Methods: this is an ambidirectional cohort of PLWH, who were started on ART between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2013, with follow-up through December 31, 2014. Our methodological approaches aimed at (1) assessing the quality of the database, (2) estimating the incidence density of lipid and glucose changes, (3) identifying factors associated with incident diabetes mellitus, and (4) developing an algorithm for prediction of incident diabetes mellitus. For the first approach we used the kappa and correlation coefficient statistics for qualitative and quantitative measures of LTCD4 + and HIV viral load (VL); for the second we used cumulative incidence statistics with a 95% confidence interval, by means of bootstrap resampling and calculation of incidence density per 1,000 person-years with a 95% confidence interval based on the Poisson distribution; for the third we used Cox regression and a hierarchical model to investigate factors that influenced time until incidence of diabetes mellitus and, for the fourth, we used in addition to structuring the Sugeno fuzzy expert system, the ROC curve to assess the accuracy of the model as compared to other factors. Results: 8,007 patients were considered eligible for the first approach; overall observed correlation for the lower LTCD4+ count before ART was 0.970 (p < 0.001) and the general agreement coefficient for qualitative measures of LTCD4 + counts and HIV VL were 0.932 (p < 0.001) and -0.996 (p < 0.001), respectively. For the second and third approaches, 6,724 patients were considered. The most common metabolic alterations were hypertriglyceridemia, 84.3 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 81.1-87.6), followed by low HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c) 48.5 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 46.1-51.1) and diabetes mellitus 17.3 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 15.8-18.8). Most strongly associated factors with incident DM were age 40 - | 50 years HR 1.7 (95%CI 1.4-2.1) and age >= 50 years HR 2.4 (95%CI 1.9-3.1), obesity HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.6-2.8), triglyceride:HDL-c ratio >= 3.5 HR 1.8 (95% CI 1.51-2.2) and hyperglycemia HR 2.6 (95% CI 1.7-2.5). The Sugeno fuzzy system had an accuracy (AUC) of 0.811 (IC95% 0,772-0,851). Conclusions: the analyses indicated a high correlation (quantitative) and agreement (qualitative) between Brazil\'s HIV/AIDS Cohort Study and SISCEL databases; diabetes mellitus and other metabolic alterations were common in the Brazil cohort of HIV / AIDS; exposure to stavudine (d4T) was a risk factor for incident diabetes mellitus; and the fuzzy linguistic algorithm could predict new cases of diabetes mellitus with a higher accuracy than conventional risk factors (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/18158-0 - Endocrine and metabolic changes associated with the use of antiretroviral medication in people living with HIV/AIDS: characterization and development of intelligent algorithms applied for its identification and prediction |
| Grantee: | Alex Jones Flores Cassenote |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |