Territory, social vulnerability, and resilience in the face of disasters: an Analysis of the municipalities of Petrópolis and Teresópolis (RJ)

Author(s)

Isabelle Salazar Vieira Alves

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: Campinas, SP.
• Institution: Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Instituto de Geociências
• Defense date: 2025-05-22

Examining board members

Raul Reis Amorim; Maria Tereza Duarte Paes; Regina Célia de Oliveira; Liliane Matos Góes; Gustavo Barreto Franco

• Advisor: Raul Reis Amorim

Abstract

Several studies have highlighted the increasing frequency and intensity of disasters, particularly in urban areas characterized by unplanned growth, such as the occupation of risk zones, riverbanks, and densely populated neighborhoods. In this context, social vulnerability is exacerbated by the inefficiency of the State, which heightens the exposure of populations to such events, amplifying their consequences. Disasters are further intensified by climate variability and climate change. Natural features such as topography and geology play a crucial role in shaping natural phenomena like mass movements and floods, which, when striking urban areas, result in disasters. The municipalities of Petrópolis and Teresópolis are especially impacted by these phenomena, which occur mainly during the summer due to high rainfall levels. These events cause significant social and economic damage, leaving a recurring reality of displacement and loss. The main objective of this thesis was the creation of two indices: one for social vulnerability and another for resilience in the municipalities of Petrópolis and Teresópolis. Social vulnerability was measured using socioeconomic data from the 2010 Census by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), while resilience was quantified based on social vulnerability results, disaster risk exposure, and risk management indicators. To achieve this objective, geoprocessing tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the R programming language were used. The research also included rainfall data analysis and disaster occurrence records in order to understand the factors influencing the severity of these events, using data from the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) and local Civil Defense departments. Surveys conducted in census sectors further enabled an assessment of the population’s socioeconomic conditions and levels of risk exposure. The results indicated that the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in peripheral neighborhoods with low coverage of public facilities such as Social Assistance Centers (CRAS), Civil Defense Community Nuclei (NUDECs), support points, and early warning sirens. Spatial analysis also revealed that areas with high population density, a history of disasters, and a lack of urban planning show lower resilience. Rainfall data and disaster records confirmed the relationship between precipitation intensity and material and human losses, with particular emphasis on the 2011 and 2022 events. Urban expansion modeling between 2000 and 2022 demonstrated the growing occupation of susceptible areas. Field survey results helped validate the spatial analyses and revealed residents’ perceptions of risk, institutional neglect, and self-protection strategies. Based on these findings, it is expected that governmental agencies, such as municipal governments and Civil Defense departments, will be able to improve their risk management strategies by developing more effective actions to protect the population, reduce human and material losses, and promote a more resilient environment to extreme climate events. The developed indices thus serve as effective tools for supporting territorial planning and public policies, contributing to the strengthening of local resilience and the mitigation of disaster impacts (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 22/01202-5 - Social and environmental vulnerability of areas with high occurrence of mass movement and flooding in the municipalities of Petrópolis and Teresópolis, Mountainous Region of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil
• Grantee: Isabelle Salazar Vieira Alves
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)