| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Boers, N.
[1, 2]
;
Bookhagen, B.
[3]
;
Barbosa, H. M. J.
[4]
;
Marwan, N.
[2]
;
Kurths, J.
[1, 5, 2, 6]
;
Marengo, J. A.
[7]
Total Authors: 6
|
| Affiliation: | [1] Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, D-12489 Berlin - Germany
[2] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam - Germany
[3] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 - USA
[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Phys, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo - Brazil
[5] Univ Aberdeen, Inst Complex Syst & Math Biol, Aberdeen AB24 3UE - Scotland
[6] Nizhnii Novgorod State Univ, Dept Control Theory, Nizhnii Novgorod 603950 - Russia
[7] CCST INPE, BR-12630000 Sao Paulo - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 7
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 5, OCT 2014. |
| Web of Science Citations: | 70 |
| Abstract | |
Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes of South America. These events are spatially extensive and often result in substantial natural hazards for population, economy and ecology. Here we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by introducing the concept of network divergence on directed networks derived from a non-linear synchronization measure. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and predict more than 60% (90% during El Nino conditions) of rainfall events above the 99th percentile in the Central Andes. In addition to the societal benefits of predicting natural hazards, our study reveals a linkage between polar and tropical regimes as the responsible mechanism: the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/50538-7 - Understanding the causes of the biases that determine the onset of the rainy season in Amazonia in climate models using GoAmazon-CHUVA measurements |
| Grantee: | Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/50510-5 - Brazil-USA collaborative research: modifications by anthropogenic pollution of the natural atmospheric chemistry and particle microphysics of the tropical rain forest during GoAmazon intensive operating periods |
| Grantee: | Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 08/58161-1 - Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option |
| Grantee: | Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 11/50151-0 - Dynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications |
| Grantee: | Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Projects - Thematic Grants |