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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

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Author(s):
Lowe, Rachel [1] ; Coelho, Caio A. S. [2] ; Barcellos, Christovam [3] ; Carvalho, Marilia Sa [3] ; Catao, Rafael De Castro [4, 1] ; Coelho, Giovanini E. [5] ; Ramalho, Walter Massa [6] ; Bailey, Trevor C. [7] ; Stephenson, David B. [7] ; Rodo, Xavier [8, 1]
Total Authors: 10
Affiliation:
[1] Inst Catala Ciencies Clima, Climate Dynam & Impacts Unit, Barcelona - Spain
[2] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Cachoeira Paulista - Brazil
[3] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil
[4] Univ Estadual Paulista, Fac Ciencias & Tecnol, Presidente Prudente - Brazil
[5] Minist Saude, Programa Nacl Controle Dengue, Coordenacao Geral, Brasilia, DF - Brazil
[6] Univ Brasilia, Fac Ceilandia, Brasilia, DF - Brazil
[7] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter Climate Syst, Exeter, Devon - England
[8] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats, Barcelona - Spain
Total Affiliations: 8
Document type: Journal article
Source: eLIFE; v. 5, FEB 24 2016.
Web of Science Citations: 19
Abstract

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 14/17676-0 - Geography of dengue fever in São Paulo State: the geographical barriers to spatial diffusion
Grantee:Rafael de Castro Catão
Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate