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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate

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Author(s):
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Bracegirdle, Thomas J. [1] ; Colleoni, Florence [2] ; Abram, Nerilie J. [3, 4] ; Bertler, Nancy A. N. [5] ; Dixon, Daniel A. [6] ; England, Mark [7] ; Favier, Vincent [8] ; Fogwill, Chris J. [9] ; Fyfe, John C. [10] ; Goodwin, Ian [11] ; Goosse, Hugues [12] ; Hobbs, Will [13] ; Jones, Julie M. [14] ; Keller, Elizabeth D. [15] ; Khan, Alia L. [16] ; Phipps, Steven J. [17] ; Raphael, Marilyn N. [18] ; Russell, Joellen [19] ; Sime, Louise [1] ; Thomas, Elizabeth R. [1] ; van den Broeke, Michiel R. [20] ; Wainer, Ilana [21]
Total Authors: 22
Affiliation:
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[1] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge CB3 0ET - England
[2] Ist Nazl Oceanog & Geofis Sperimentale, I-34010 Sgonico, TS - Italy
[3] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT 2601 - Australia
[4] Australian Natl Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT 2601 - Australia
[5] Victoria Univ Wellington, Antarctic Res Ctr, Wellington 6140 - New Zealand
[6] Univ Maine, Climate Change Inst, Orono, ME 04469 - USA
[7] Columbia Univ, Appl Phys & Appl Math Dept, New York, NY 10027 - USA
[8] Univ Grenoble Alpes, IGE, CNRS, F-38000 Grenoble - France
[9] Keele Univ, Sch Geog Geol & Environm, Keele ST5 5BG, Staffs - England
[10] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 - Canada
[11] Macquarie Univ, Marine Climate Risk Grp, Dept Environm Sci, 12 Wallys Walk, Sydney, NSW 2109 - Australia
[12] Catholic Univ Louvain, Earth & Life Inst, B-1348 Louvain La Neuve - Belgium
[13] Univ Tasmania, ACE CRC, Hobart, Tas 7001 - Australia
[14] Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire - England
[15] GNS Sci, 30 Gracefield Rd, Gracefield 5010, POB 31-312, Lower Hutt 5040 - New Zealand
[16] Western Washington Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Bellingham, WA 98225 - USA
[17] Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas 7001 - Australia
[18] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90024 - USA
[19] Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 - USA
[20] Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, NL-3584 CC Utrecht - Netherlands
[21] Univ Sao Paulo, Oceanog Inst, BR-05508120 Sao Paulo - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 21
Document type: Review article
Source: GEOSCIENCES; v. 9, n. 6 JUN 2019.
Web of Science Citations: 2
Abstract

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20(th) century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21(st) century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 15/50686-1 - Paleo-constraints on monsoon evolution and dynamics
Grantee:Pedro Leite da Silva Dias
Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants