Longer crop cycle lengths could offset the negative effects of climate change on Brazilian maize

Author(s)

Tamires Teles de Souza ^[1] ; Luís Alberto Silva Antolin ^[2] ; Vitor de Jesus Martins Bianchini ^[3] ; Rodolfo Armando de Almeida Pereira ^[4] ; Evandro Henrique Figueiredo Moura Silva ^[5] ; Fábio Ricardo Marin ^[6]

Affiliation

^[1] Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas - Brasil

^[2] Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas - Brasil

^[3] Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas - Brasil

^[4] Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas - Brasil

^[5] Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas - Brasil

^[6] Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”. Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas - Brasil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Bragantia; v. 78, n. 4, p. 622-631, 2019-12-13.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Maize (Zea mays) is considered one of the most important crops for world food security. Globally, Brazil is the second largest maize producer and the fourth largest maize consumer. The climate variables is one of the main determining factors for crop yield. Given the possibility of future climate changes, our objective was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize crop growth and development, assessed strategies to cope with the future crop andto quantify the impacts on various producing regions of Brazil. The DSSAT/CERES-Maize model was calibrated with field data and then used to simulate current and six future climate scenarios, according to the AgMIP protocols. We selected three regional climate circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the period of 2040-2069. For most of the producing regions, the simulations showed a decreasing trend during both the summer and autumn sowing seasons, except the autumn crops in Southern Brazil. We found the air temperature rise as the main factor for yield decreasing, and this finding provides an adaptation option to cope with future climate, as the country has a great latitudinal range for crop management, meaning genotypes with extended cycles could compensate the climate change, and thereby avoid the yield loss for maize crops. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/06363-6 - Scenarios simulation agricultural futures for maize in Brazil based on climate change projections
• Grantee: Tamires Teles de Souza
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• FAPESP's process: 17/20925-0 - Brazilian yield-gap atlas: assessing the potential for sustainable intensification of Brazilian agriculture
• Grantee: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• FAPESP's process: 14/12406-4 - Brazilian sugarcane yield-gap: current status and future projection based on climate, soil and water management changes
• Grantee: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants
• FAPESP's process: 17/50445-0 - Brazilian yield-gap atlas: assessing the potential for sustainable intensification of Brazilian agriculture
• Grantee: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants