Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Author(s)

Dodero-Rojas, Esteban ^{[1, 2]} ; Ferreira, Luiza G. ^[3] ; Leite, Vitor B. P. ^[4] ; Onuchic, Jose N. ^{[1, 5, 3, 6]} ; Contessoto, Vinicius G. ^{[1, 7]}

Affiliation

^[1] Rice Univ, Ctr Theoret Biol Phys, Houston, TX 77005 - USA

^[2] Univ Costa Rica, Theoret & Computat Phys Lab, San Jose - Costa Rica

^[3] Rice Univ, Dept Chem, Houston, TX - USA

^[4] Sao Paulo State Univ, Inst Biosci Letters & Exact Sci, Dept Phys, UNESP, Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, SP - Brazil

^[5] Rice Univ, Dept Biosci, Houston, TX - USA

^[6] Rice Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Houston, TX - USA

^[7] Brazilian Ctr Res Energy & Mat CNPEM, Brazilian Biorenewables Natl Lab LNBR, Campinas, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PLoS One; v. 15, n. 1 JAN 28 2020.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases have become a significant health issue in many regions around the world. For tropical countries, diseases such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya, became epidemic in the last decades. Health surveillance reports during this period were crucial in providing scientific-based information to guide decision making and resources allocation to control outbreaks. In this work, we perform data analysis of the last Chikungunya epidemics in the city of Rio de Janeiro by applying a compartmental mathematical model. Sensitivity analyses were performed in order to describe the contribution of each parameter to the outbreak incidence. We estimate the ``basic reproduction number{''} for those outbreaks and predict the potential epidemic outbreak of the Mayaro virus. We also simulated several scenarios with different public interventions to decrease the number of infected people. Such scenarios should provide insights about possible strategies to control future outbreaks. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 17/09662-7 - Rational Evolution by Computational Methods Applied in Enzymes Related to Bioethanol Production
• Grantee: Vinícius de Godoi Contessoto
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• FAPESP's process: 18/18668-1 - Biological macromolecules energy landscapes visualization
• Grantee: Vitor Barbanti Pereira Leite
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• FAPESP's process: 16/13998-8 - Rational evolution by computational methods applied to predict mutations in enzymes to biofuels production
• Grantee: Vinícius de Godoi Contessoto
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral