| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Alves de Oliveira, Beatriz Fatima
[1]
;
Bottino, Marcus J.
[2]
;
Nobre, Paulo
[2]
;
Nobre, Carlos A.
[3]
Total Authors: 4
|
| Affiliation: | [1] Fiocruz MS, Oswaldo Cruz Fdn, Reg Off Piaui, Natl Sch Publ Hlth, Teresina, Piaui - Brazil
[2] Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil
[3] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies IEA, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 3
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT; v. 2, n. 1 OCT 1 2021. |
| Web of Science Citations: | 0 |
| Abstract | |
Complete savannization of the Amazon Basin would enhance the effects of climate change on local heat exposure and pose a risk to human health, according to climate model projections. Land use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to assess the impact of savannization of the Amazon Basin on the wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress index under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that heat stress exposure due to deforestation was comparable to the effect of climate change under RCP8.5. Our findings suggest that heat stress index could exceed the human adaptation limit by 2100 under the combined effects of Amazon savannization and climate change. Moreover, we find that risk of heat stress exposure was highest in Northern Brazil and among the most socially vulnerable. We suggest that by 2100, savannization of the Amazon will lead to more than 11 million people will be exposed heat stress that poses an extreme risk to human health under a high emission scenario. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change |
| Grantee: | Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants |