rban flood risk under global changes: a socio-hydrological and cellular automata approach in a Brazilian catchmen

Author(s)

Sarmento Buarque, Ana Carolina ^[1] ; Souza, Christopher Freire ^[2] ; Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto ^[1] ; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos Sch Engn, Sao Carlos - Brazil

^[2] Univ Fed Alagoas, Technol Ctr, Maceio, Alagoas - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES; v. 66, n. 14 OCT 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Society is facing increasingly rapid and frequent changes, which are transforming the decision making paradigm from a static, value-based perspective to a dynamic, scenario-based perspective. Flood risk assessment (FRA) is moving towards an approach that encompasses social, climatic, and environmental changes. Advances in climate and hydraulic modelling allow the development of long-term scenarios with greater reliability. However, the coupling of human behaviour in the process of flood risk assessment is still in an embryonic phase. Here we attempt to fill this gap by (1) coupling a socio-hydrological model with an urban flood model using a cellular automata approach, and (2) using climate change projections to estimate flood risk in the coming decades. We illustrate our analytical framework with an application in a Brazilian catchment, showing its potential in developing long-term scenarios that can ultimately improve the process of flood risk assessment. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 18/03473-0 - Understanding risk perception and enigma of peoples' memory through social-hydrology
• Grantee: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - International