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From subcritical behavior to a correlation-induced transition in rumor models

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Author(s):
de Arruda, Guilherme Ferraz ; Jeub, Lucas G. S. ; Mata, Angelica S. ; Rodrigues, Francisco A. ; Moreno, Yamir
Total Authors: 5
Document type: Journal article
Source: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 13, n. 1, p. 10-pg., 2022-06-01.
Abstract

Rumors and information spreading emerge naturally from human-to-human interactions and have a growing impact on our everyday life due to increasing and faster access to information, whether trustworthy or not. A popular mathematical model for spreading rumors, data, or news is the Maki-Thompson model. Mean-field approximations suggested that this model does not have a phase transition, with rumors always reaching a fraction of the population. Conversely, here, we show that a continuous phase transition is present in this model. Moreover, we explore a modified version of the Maki-Thompson model that includes a forgetting mechanism, changing the Markov chain's nature and allowing us to use a plethora of analytic and numeric methods. Particularly, we characterize the subcritical behavior, where the lifespan of a rumor increases as the spreading rate drops, following a power-law relationship. Our findings show that the dynamic behavior of rumor models is much richer than shown in previous investigations. Rumors and information spreading emerge naturally from human-to-human interaction and have a growing impact on people's lives due to increasing and faster access to information, whether trustworthy or not. The authors study the Maki-Thompson rumor model and its variation, revealing a phase transition and providing insights into the nature of this transition. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 19/23293-0 - Prediction and inference in complex systems
Grantee:Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
FAPESP's process: 13/07375-0 - CeMEAI - Center for Mathematical Sciences Applied to Industry
Grantee:Francisco Louzada Neto
Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Research, Innovation and Dissemination Centers - RIDC