The influence of landscape structure on the dispersal pattern of yellow fever virus in the state of Sao Paulo

Author(s)

Wilk-da-Silva, Ramon ; Mederiros-Sousa, Antonio Ralph ; Laporta, Gabriel Zorello ; Mucci, Luis Filipe ; Prist, Paula Ribeiro ; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Acta Tropica; v. 228, p. 9-pg., 2022-02-01.

Abstract

Man-made changes to the landscape play a crucial role in altering the epidemiologic patterns of infectious diseases, mainly as a result of pathogen spillover. Sylvatic yellow fever is ideally suited to modeling of this phenomenon as the risk of transmission of the disease as well as its circulation and dispersal are associated with forest fragmentation. In this study we investigated the temporal dispersal pattern of yellow fever virus (YFV) by means of confirmed cases of epizootics in non-human primates in municipalities in the state of Sao Paulo where there was no recommendation for vaccination in 2017. We analyzed the resistance to dispersal associated with different classes of land use and the geographic distances between the different locations where epizootics were recorded. The model that best explained the temporal dispersal pattern of YFV in the study area indicated that this was influenced by the geographic distance between collection locations and by the permeability of the forest edges (150 m) at the interface with the following core areas: Water, Agricultural, Non-Forest Formation and Forestry. Water, Agricultural, Urban and Forest core areas and the interfaces between the latter two formed important barriers to circulation of the virus. These findings indicate that fragmentation of vegetation tends to decrease the time taken for pathogens to spread, while conservation of forest areas has the opposite effect. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/18751-6 - Development of predictive models for the dynamics of transmission and spatial dispersion of the sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil.
• Grantee: Antônio Ralph Medeiros de Sousa
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 17/23127-7 - Analysis of the influence of the landscape on the population structure of mosquitoes Haemagogus (Conopostegus) leucocelaenus (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas with historical of Yellow Fever epizootics in non-human primates in the State of São Paulo
• Grantee: Ramon Wilk da Silva
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 18/25437-6 - Study of potential vectors and ecological factors associated with the emergence and circulation of yellow fever in Brazil
• Grantee: Mauro Toledo Marrelli
• Support Opportunities: BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Regular Research Grants