Dynamical-statistical downscaling of seasonal hindcasts of temperature and precipitation over South America

Author(s)

Tavares, Priscila da Silva ; Rodrigues, Daniela Carneiro ; Chou, Sin Chan ; Laureanti, Nicole Cristine ; Medeiros, Gustavo Sueiro ; Gomes, Jorge Luis ; Vergasta, Leonardo Alves ; Correia, Francis Wagner Silva

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: RBRH-REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE RECURSOS HIDRICOS; v. 30, p. 18-pg., 2025-01-01.

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Eta Regional Climate Model in reproducing the seasonal climate over South America for the rainy season from November until April, with emphasis on the Madeira, S & atilde;o Francisco, and Paran & aacute; river basins. For this purpose, a 10-year set of 6-month range seasonal hindcasts was produced using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 20-km horizontal resolution driven by the CFSv2 forecasts. In addition to dynamical downscaling, the precipitation and 2-meter temperature were statistically downscaled by applying a Quantile Mapping bias correction. The Eta model forecasts reasonably reproduced the precipitation and temperature patterns in the region, with some errors that were reduced by the statistical downscaling. Precipitation skill scores are higher in the northern and central areas of the continent. Although it has shown mixed performance for extreme events-low in the Paran & aacute; basin and limited but useful in the Madeira and S & atilde;o Francisco basins-the dynamical-statistical system developed with the Eta model shows higher skill and added value over the driver model, indicating potential to support water resources management in South America. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 20/08796-2 - Drought and flooding forecast system to support decision making in the reserve area for sustainable development of Madeira river
• Grantee: Chou Sin Chan
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• FAPESP's process: 24/05084-2 - High-Resolution Climate Change Modeling
• Grantee: Priscila da Silva Tavares
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral