The complexity of Brazilian food systems and the global syndemic: simulations and proposals for action

• Grant number: 22/03091-6
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Initial Project
• Start date: February 01, 2023
• End date: January 31, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Public Health
• Principal Investigator: Aline Martins de Carvalho
• Grantee: Aline Martins de Carvalho
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem ; Ana Luiza Gomes Domingos ; Andrew D Jones ; Antonio Mauro Saraiva ; Dirce Maria Lobo Marchioni ; Eliseu Verly Junior ; Evandro Marcos Saidel Ribeiro ; Flávia Mori Sarti ; Olivier Jolliet
• Associated scholarship(s): 24/20433-3 - Organizing, developing, and managing data on the Brazilian food system and the Global syndemic, BP.TT; 23/16338-2 - Mapping and modelling the Brazilian food system and its impact on the syndemic of malnutrition, obesity and climate change, BP.DR; 23/13962-7 - Integrative review about food systems, BP.IC

Abstract

Food systems can be defined as the set of elements and activities related to the production, processing, distribution, preparation, and food consumption; being considered the main drivers of the global syndemic of malnutrition, obesity, and climate change. Because they are very complex, with many agents and interactions, little is known about the dynamics of food systems and their impacts on health and the environment, especially in the Global South. Thus, the objective of the present project is to map and model the Brazilian food system, identifying the main actors, their relationships and interactions that impact the global syndemic in different Brazilian regions using innovative methodologies capable of dealing with the complexity of food systems and simulating different scenarios of intervention. The Brazilian food system will be represented by an agent-based model, where the components influence the system through their decisions and interrelationships. The conceptual model will be developed from a synthetic representation of the components of the Brazilian food system, including a set of static structure diagrams, derived from an integrative literature review. Then, specific mathematical models will be implemented to represent the behaviors and rules of interactions between agents and their effects on the environment, including linear and non-linear models, methods for generating social networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, multi-criteria causal models, among others. Finally, the model will be subjected to calibration and validation of parameters based on real data from the Brazilian regions for the creation of an interactive platform capable of simulating possible changes in the food system through interventions at different levels (individual, institutional and political) and its impacts on the syndemic. (AU)

Scientific publications

(4)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

GOMES, SAVIO MARCELINO; CARVALHO, ALINE MARTINS; CANTALICE, ANIBAL SILVA; MAGALHAES, ARTHUR RAMALHO; TREGIDGO, DANIEL; DE OLIVEIRA, DANILO VICENTE BATISTA; DA SILVA, ELENILMA BARROS; MENEZES NETO, ELIAS JACOB DE; MAIA, JULIANA KELLY DA SILVA; DE GUSMAO, REGINALDO AUGUSTO FARIAS; et al. Nexus among climate change, food systems, and human health: An interdisciplinary research framework in the Global South. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, v. 161, p. 12-pg., 2024-09-12. (22/03091-6)

FELIPE LESCHAUD DE OLIVEIRA; MÔNICA ROCHA GONÇALVES; ALISSON DIEGO MACHADO; ALINE MARTINS DE CARVALHO. Alimentação e Nutrição: Interface das Políticas Públicas do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional para a Agenda 2030. Interface (Botucatu), v. 29, 2025-02-21. (22/03091-6)

GOMES, SAVIO MARCELINO; CHAVES, VIVIANY MOURA; DE CARVALHO, ALINE MARTINS; DA SILVA, ELENILMA BARROS; DE MENEZES NETO, ELIAS JACOB; MOURA, GABRIELA DE FARIAS; CHAVES, LEONARDO DA SILVA; ALVES, ROMULO ROMEU NOBREGA; DE ALBUQUERQUE, ULYSSES PAULINO; PEREIRA, FILLIPE DE OLIVEIRA; et al. Biodiversity is overlooked in the diets of different social groups in Brazil (vol 13, 7509, 2023). SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 2-pg., 2023-06-07. (22/03091-6)

GOMES, SAVIO MARCELINO; CHAVES, VIVIANY MOURA; DE CARVALHO, ALINE MARTINS; DA SILVA, ELENILMA BARROS; DE MENEZES NETO, ELIAS JACOB; DE FARIAS MOURA, GABRIELA; DA SILVA CHAVES, LEONARDO; ALVES, ROMULO ROMEU NOBREGA; DE ALBUQUERQUE, ULYSSES PAULINO; DE OLIVEIRA PEREIRA, FILLIPE; et al. Biodiversity is overlooked in the diets of different social groups in Brazil. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 10-pg., 2023-05-09. (22/03091-6)