Predictive modelling of species distribution and biodiversity scenarios in relation to the landscape in the Corumbataí river basin, SP

• Grant number: 05/00405-4
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: October 01, 2005
• End date: September 30, 2008
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Hilton Thadeu Zarate do Couto
• Grantee: Hilton Thadeu Zarate do Couto
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Habitat fragmentation is one of the main causes of biodiversity reduction strongly influencing the species distribution and abundance. Predictive modeling of species distribution allow us to understand which factors may affect the their distribution and abundance and preview the possible alterations in this pattern. This study aims to understand the distribution pattern of three vertebrates groups (medium-large size mammals, birds, and stream fishes) in relation to the landscape composition and configuration, and preview possible alterations in this pattern by land cover/land use simulations. The study area chosen for this project is the Corumbataí river basin because of its great importance for biodiversity conservation in the region. This study will be carried out in three phases: a) vertebrates survey: the species occurrence will be inferred by direct and indirect observations in the field. Study sites will be defined by stratified sampling and the field effort will be normalized by each strata; b) predictive models of species distribution: presence data and environmental layers such as land cover, aspect, geology, slope etc. Models will be run in the Desktop GARP and by the discriminant function. Models accuracy will be tested by confusion matrix and quantitative indexes; e, c) biodiversity scenarios: they will be generated by land cover/land use simulations. Predictive models will be projected over three different scenarios aiming to provide information about possible expansion/contraction of species distributional areas. Results could provide a prognostic of species spatial distribution in relation to the landscape, aiming to contribute to the biodiversity management and conservation in Sao Paulo State. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

NAGY-REIS, MARIANA; OSHIMA, JULIA EMI DE FARIA; KANDA, CLAUDIA ZUKERAN; PALMEIRA, FRANCESCA BELEM LOPES; DE MELO, FABIANO RODRIGUES; MORATO, RONALDO GONCALVES; BONJORNE, LILIAN; MAGIOLI, MARCELO; LEUCHTENBERGER, CAROLINE; ROHE, FABIO; et al. NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES: a data set on carnivore distribution in the Neotropics. ECOLOGY, v. 101, n. 11, NOV 2020. (14/01986-0, 12/14245-2, 10/05343-5, 13/50421-2, 06/04878-7, 17/21816-0, 05/00405-4, 13/24453-4, 15/22844-1, 13/07162-6, 15/19439-8, 16/11595-3, 19/04851-1, 15/18381-6, 13/04957-8, 14/23095-0, 14/09300-0, 11/06782-5, 15/17739-4, 11/22449-4, 14/23132-2, 14/10192-7, 12/00534-2, 14/14925-9)

MICCHI DE BARROS FERRAZ, KATIA MARIA PASCHOALETTO; DE SIQUEIRA, MARINEZ FERREIRA; ALEXANDRINO, EDUARDO ROBERTO; APOLINARIO DA LUZ, DANIELA TOMASIO; ZARATE DO COUTO, HILTON THADEU. Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION, v. 39, n. 4, p. 316-324, DEC 2012. (05/00405-4, 06/04878-7)

PUTTKER, THOMAS; CROUZEILLES, RENATO; ALMEIDA-GOMES, MAURICIO; SCHMOELLER, MARINA; MAURENZA, DANIEL; ALVES-PINTO, HELENA; PARDINI, RENATA; VIEIRA, MARCUS V.; BANKS-LEITE, CRISTINA; FONSECA, CARLOS R.; et al. Indirect effects of habitat loss via habitat fragmentation: A cross-taxa analysis of forest-dependent species. Biological Conservation, v. 241, JAN 2020. (14/09300-0, 05/00405-4, 14/10192-7, 06/04878-7, 08/03724-1, 11/06782-5, 04/04820-3, 14/14503-7, 13/50718-5, 11/19767-4, 08/01866-3, 13/22679-5, 14/14925-9, 99/09635-0)