Electoral volatility and strategy of federal congressmen in Brazil

• Grant number: 15/02045-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: December 01, 2015
• End date: August 31, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - Political Behavior
• Principal Investigator: George Avelino Filho
• Grantee: Julia Mantovani Guerreiro
• Host Institution: Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (EAESP). Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 13/15658-1 - Subnational political institutions: a comparative study of Brazilian States, AP.TEM

Abstract

This project aims at understanding if the changes that occurred in the Brazilian electoral environment over the last decades, mainly the ones related to a reduction in volatility rates, have impacted the electoral strategies adopted by federal congressmen.Several authors have pointed out to the fact that volatility rates have been falling in Brazil. Even though it has occurred unequally over the states, this fall is important in that it turns electoral competition more predictable among parties, increasing accountability and allowing federal deputies to enhance their electoral strategies. If electoral volatility is lower, then why have strategies of experienced candidates not become more efficient over time, that is, why are reelection rates still low in Brazil?This project explores the possibility that advantages brought forward by lower volatility rates will be appropriated in different ways, according to the type of the party. In this way, it is assumed that the fall in volatility is mainly related to more institutionalized parties and to incumbents of these parties. Given that institutionalized parties are able to provide clearer information about the efficiency of electoral strategies, the types of incumbents' electoral failure - due to the party's bad performance or to the individual congressman's bad performance - should vary according to the institutionalization level of the party.