The impact of the Ecological Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfer (Ecological ICMS) on the expansion of protected areas and forest regeneration in Brazil

• Grant number: 17/20245-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: December 20, 2017
• End date: May 27, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Agrarian and Natural Resource Economics
• Principal Investigator: Jean Paul Walter Metzger
• Grantee: Patricia Guidão Cruz Ruggiero
• Supervisor: Alexander Pfaff
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Duke University, United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 15/16587-6 - Effectiveness of payment for environmental services mechanism, BP.DR

Abstract

This project, in collaboration with Professor Dr. Alex Pfaff from the Sanford School of Public Policy and the Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, focuses on the evaluation of the effectiveness of the intergovernmental fiscal transfer mechanism in Brazil - the Ecological ICMS. The Ecological ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços) is cited as one of the most promising and innovative financial incentive mechanisms for environmental conservation. It consists of an intergovernmental fiscal transfer that considers ecological criteria for redistributing the revenues from the added-value tax ICMS to local governments. Land covered by legally protected areas (i.e. Conservation Units) is the main ecological criteria that municipalities must accomplish to benefit from the Ecological ICMS. Although it has been implemented in 16 Brazilian states since 1996, there are no impact evaluations of this mechanism that are based on a counterfactual approach, properly distinguishing between mechanism effect and hidden biases (confounders). We propose to test how effective the Ecological ICMS is on the promotion of new Conservation Units and on the increase of native forest under regeneration in the Atlantic Forest region. We will analyze neighbor municipalities located in state borders, comparing states that implemented the ICMS-E, with states with no ICMS-E policy. In these state borders, the selection of comparable pairs of treatment municipalities (under the Ecological ICMS incentive) and control (without the incentive) will be made based on: i) biophysical and geographic characteristics - native vegetation area, relief, soil type, precipitation and temperature, presence of water bodies; ii) infrastructure conditions - road density, urban area and iii) socioeconomic conditions - population density, per capita income and HDI. Our hypothesis is that the Ecological ICMS promotes an increase of the area within Conservation Units (SNUC) and the increase of area of native vegetation under regeneration, being the incentive particularly more effective when municipalities have a lower economic activity. Our research will significantly contribute to natural resources public management, providing important subsidies for the implementation of public policies for land use planning and ecosystem maintenance services in the Atlantic Forest region.

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

RUGGIERO, PATRICIA G. C.; PFAFF, ALEXANDER; NICHOLS, ELIZABETH; ROSA, MARCOS; METZGER, JEAN PAUL. Election cycles affect deforestation within Brazil's Atlantic Forest. CONSERVATION LETTERS, v. 14, n. 5, SEP 2021. (17/20245-9, 15/16587-6, 14/11676-8, 13/23457-6)

RUGGIERO, P. G. C.; PFAFF, A.; PEREDA, P.; NICHOLS, E.; METZGER, J. P.. The Brazilian intergovernmental fiscal transfer for conservation: A successful but self-limiting incentive program. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, v. 191, JAN 2022. (14/11676-8, 15/16587-6, 13/23457-6, 17/20245-9)

RUGGIERO, PATRICIA G. C.; PFAFF, ALEXANDER; NICHOLS, ELIZABETH; ROSA, MARCOS; METZGER, JEAN PAUL. Election cycles affect deforestation within Brazil's Atlantic Forest. CONSERVATION LETTERS, JUN 2021. (15/16587-6, 17/20245-9, 13/23457-6, 14/11676-8)