Future scenarios of soybean target spot severity in the main producing regions of Brazil

• Grant number: 23/00305-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: April 01, 2023
• End date: March 31, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Gustavo de Angelo Luca
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Studying the factors that affect soybean development is important for correct decision-making and risk analysis, especially for a crop of such economic importance for Brazil. With the increase in world population, the demand for soybean by-products should be even greater, under a scenario of climate change, which threatens agricultural production by altering the basic conditions for the physiological development of plants. In addition, climate change can alter production-reducing factors such as pests, diseases and weeds. In this context, it is important to evaluate the new phytopathogenic conditions, as well as the new population dynamics of pests and weeds in future scenarios, in order to make the best possible decisions. One of the most important diseases for the soybean crop in Brazil is the target spot. Thus, this project seeks to evaluate the changes that will occur with the target spot leaf disease in the soybean crop, in relation to its severity and times of occurrence, in the main producing regions of Brazil. To do so, at first, a specific epidemiological model will be created for the fungus that causes this disease, based on the adaptation of models available in the literature, taking into account the main processes involved in the development of the disease, which are dispersion, deposition, infection , latency and production of secondary inoculum. Subsequently, this model will be dynamically coupled to the CROPGRO-Soybean model, from the DSSAT platform, which will have the function of providing the climatic variables that will control the growth of the crop and the disease simultaneously in the current scenario and in the future scenarios provided by the project. CMIP6, in addition to making it possible to simulate the plant-pathogen interaction, in order to assess the severity and the new times of disease occurrence.