Modelling the transport of CO2 under various deforestation scenarios in the Amazon using the WRF-GHG model

• Grant number: 24/17124-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: January 01, 2025
• End date: April 25, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
• Grantee: Noelia Rojas Benavente
• Supervisor: Santiago Botia
• Host Institution: Instituto de Física (IF). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Max-Planck-Institut Für Biogeochemie, Germany
• Associated to the scholarship: 24/01369-2 - Modeling the transport of greenhouse gases under different deforestation scenarios in the Amazon using the WRF-GHG regional model, BP.PD

Abstract

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in global carbon cycle and climate regulation, however, has experienced significant deforestation and forest degradation over the past decades. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has pointed out that, if drastic measures are not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 levels will continue to rise until 2100. This could have serious consequences for the global climate, including an increase in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns and a rise in sea level. Therefore, based on the IPCC scenarios SSP2-4.5 ("Middle of the road") and SSP5-8.5 ("Fossil-fuled development"), we will use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Greenhouse Gases (WRF-GHG) model to simulate CO2 transport under various deforestation scenarios in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective is to project CO2 biogenic fluxes and background concentrations in the Amazon region in future land-use and climate scenarios. We are going to update the model with recent and long-term land-use data to reflect current and future patterns of deforestation and degradation, and assess their impact on CO2 fluxes, concentrations and transport dynamics. Through a series of simulations with different deforestation scenarios, substantial changes in CO2 distribution and transport are expected to happen over the Amazon, highlighting the urgent need for incorporating accurate, up-to-date land use information into atmospheric models.