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| Author(s): |
Lucas Damasceno PEREIRA
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI) |
| Defense date: | 2025-04-10 |
| Examining board members: |
Janina Onuki;
Rodrigo Pedrosa Lyra;
Manoel Galdino Pereira Neto;
Gabriela da Silva Tarouco
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| Advisor: | Janina Onuki |
| Abstract | |
This dissertation examines the role of the Organization of American States international electoral observation missions in democracy protection. It contends that EOMs function as strategic actors whose influence on democratic resilience stems from their dual capacities for transparency and enforcement: they observe and report on electoral integrity and deploy enforcement mechanisms to actively safeguard representative democracy. First, it revisits norm diffusion theory, demonstrating how increasing political polarization influences the demand for electoral observation, even in traditionally consolidated democracies. Second, quantitative text analysis and statistical modeling identify how the tone of press releases reflects broader dynamics of institutionalization of conflict. Third, a game-theoretic formalization of the \"observers dilemma\" elucidates the strategic decision-making process behind EOMs\' democracy protection efforts. Fourth, the study applies this framework to analyze four critical electoral crises Honduras (2017), Bolivia (2019), Ecuador (2021), and Guatemala (2023) highlighting the strategic choices in the use of enforcement tools and the dominance of minimalist strategies. It challenges conventional understandings of international electoral observation\'s contribution to democracy based exclusively on promoting transparency. It demonstrates that electoral observation missions engage in the enforcement of democratic norms, especially during crisis scenarios. Thus, it presents how electoral observation missions are strategic decision-makers in an incentive-driven environment and how their success in democracy protection depends on the impact of the chosen strategies. The research methodology draws on computational analysis, fieldwork, and elite interviews. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 20/06731-0 - Multilateralism, regionalism, and democracy: the usages of shaming by the Organization of American States in missions of electoral observation |
| Grantee: | Lucas Damasceno Pereira |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |