Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario

Author(s)

Meacci, Luca ^[1] ; Primicerio, Mario ^[2]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, ICMC, Ave Trabalhador Sancarlense 400, BR-13566590 Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Firenze, Dipartimento Matemat U Dini, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 67-A, I-50134 Florence - Italy

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: RESULTS IN PHYSICS; v. 31, DEC 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has generated, in addition to the dramatic sanitary consequences, severe psychological repercussions for the populations affected by the pandemic. Simultaneously, these consequences can have related effects on the spread of the virus. Pandemic fatigue occurs when stress rises beyond a threshold, leading a person to feel demotivated to follow recommended behaviours to protect themselves and others. In the present paper, we introduce a new susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-dead (SIQRD) model in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE). The model considers the countermeasures taken by sanitary authorities and the effect of pandemic fatigue. The latter can be mitigated by fear of the disease's consequences modelled with the death rate in mind. The mathematical well-posedness of the model is proved. We show the numerical results to be consistent with the transmission dynamics data characterising the epidemic of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy in 2020. We provide a measure of the possible pandemic fatigue impact. The model can be used to evaluate the public health interventions and prevent with specific actions the possible damages resulting from the social phenomenon of relaxation concerning the observance of the preventive rules imposed. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 14/50889-7 - National Institute of Science and Technology Medicine Assisted by Scientific Computing (INCT-MACC)
• Grantee: José Eduardo Krieger
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants