Power distribution system interruption duration model using reliability

Author(s)

Fogliatto, M. S. S. ; Caetano, H. O. ; Desuo N, L. ; Massignan, J. A. D. ; Fanucchi, R. Z. ; London, J. B. A. ; Pereira, B. R. ; Bessani, M. ; Maciel, C. D.

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Electric Power Systems Research; v. 211, p. 12-pg., 2022-10-01.

Abstract

Electricity is a fundamental resource to society as a whole, since it is used in the majority of modern activities, however, it has been supplied by large-scale systems whose infrastructure is liable to failures or interruptions. Therefore, two points are worth mentioning that result in supply interruptions: the number of failures/interruptions and their duration. Thus, a correct estimation of when an accident might occur and how long it can last is of fundamental importance for planning and operating power distribution systems. Regression models are statistical tools that allow a better understanding of such problems by accurately predicting such future scenarios. In this context, a reliability analysis regression was carried out to generate a model using data from real failure occurrences aiming to provide a model capable of effectively estimating the duration of failures in power distribution systems that can also assess and determine which probability distribution accurately calculates interruption duration time. Lognormal distribution presented the better results and the developed model can be used for the simulation of realistic duration time data given the occurrence of failures in distribution systems. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/19150-6 - Resilience of complex systems with the use of dynamic Bayesian networks: a probabilistic approach
• Grantee: Carlos Dias Maciel
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• FAPESP's process: 21/12220-1 - Resilience analysis of distribution systems using probabilistic networks
• Grantee: Henrique de Oliveira Caetano
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)
• FAPESP's process: 14/50851-0 - INCT 2014: National Institute of Science and Technology for Cooperative Autonomous Systems Applied in Security and Environment
• Grantee: Marco Henrique Terra
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants