| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Neto, Luiz Desuo
;
Caetano, Henrique de Oliveira
;
Fogliatto, Matheus de Souza Sant'Anna
;
Maciel, Carlos Dias
Total Authors: 4
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS; v. 276, p. 16-pg., 2025-03-12. |
| Abstract | |
Evaluating carbon emissions in last-mile logistics is critical for achieving climate goals, yet current models lack integration of spatiotemporal traffic dynamics and climate factors. This study aims to (1) develop a Bayesian Markov random field model integrating spatiotemporal traffic data and speed scenarios influenced by precipitation, (2) quantify carbon dioxide emissions from last-mile logistics illustrated by maintenance dispatches in power distribution systems using a widely recognized traffic speed to CO2 conversion method, and (3) provide actionable strategies for reducing emissions in last-mile logistics. Achieving a traffic speed prediction accuracy with an approximate error of 2%, the proposed model quantified carbon emissions under dynamic routing conditions. Simulation results from maintenance dispatches in power distribution systems indicate that, under average failure conditions, the annual carbon emissions from two teams operating in S & atilde;o Paulo are equivalent to the carbon dioxide absorbed by approximately five hectares of trees. These findings underscore the critical importance of incorporating environmental considerations into reliability assessments. While the study focuses on power distribution systems, the proposed framework is broadly applicable to any last-mile logistics problem, offering actionable insights-such as optimizing dispatch frequencies-to minimize emissions. By addressing the cumulative environmental impact of routine operations, this research supports the transition to carbon-neutral last-mile services and promotes responsible logistics practices across industries worldwide. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/12220-1 - Resilience analysis of distribution systems using probabilistic networks |
| Grantee: | Henrique de Oliveira Caetano |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct) |
| FAPESP's process: | 18/19150-6 - Resilience of complex systems with the use of dynamic Bayesian networks: a probabilistic approach |
| Grantee: | Carlos Dias Maciel |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships abroad - Research |
| FAPESP's process: | 19/07665-4 - Center for Artificial Intelligence |
| Grantee: | Fabio Gagliardi Cozman |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Grants - Research Program in eScience and Data Science - Research Centers in Engineering Program |
| FAPESP's process: | 14/50851-0 - INCT 2014: National Institute of Science and Technology for Cooperative Autonomous Systems Applied in Security and Environment |
| Grantee: | Marco Henrique Terra |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Projects - Thematic Grants |