Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil

Author(s):Show less -

Muylaert, Renata L. ^{[1, 2]} ; Sabino-Santos Jr, Gilberto ; Prist, Paula R. ^[3] ; Oshima, Julia E. F. ^[1] ; Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandao ^{[1, 4, 5]} ; Sobral-Souza, Thadeu ^[6] ; de Oliveira, Stefan Vilges ^[7] ; Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira ^[8] ; Marshall, Jonathan C. ^[2] ; Hayman, David T. S. ^[2] ; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, BR-13506900 Rio Claro - Brazil

^[2] Massey Univ, Hopkirk Res Inst, Mol Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Lab, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4474 - New Zealand

^[3] Univ Sao Paulo, Biosci Inst, Dept Ecol, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[4] Inst Chico Mendes Conservacao ICMBio, Carnivoros CENAP, Ctr Nacl Pesquisa & Conservacao Mamiferos, Estr Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi, BR-12952011 Atibaia - Brazil

^[5] Inst Procarnivoros, Av Horacio Neto 1030, Parque Edmundo Zanoni, BR-12945010 Atibaia - Brazil

^[6] Fed Univ Mato Grosso UFMT, Dept Bot & Ecol, BR-78060900 Cuiaba - Brazil

^[7] Univ Fed Uberlandia, Fac Med, Dept Saude Colet, Ave Para 1720, Campus Umuarama, BR-38405320 Uberlandia, MG - Brazil

^[8] Univ Estadual Santa Cruz, Dept Ciencias Biol, BR-45662900 Ilheus, BA - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Viruses-Basel; v. 11, n. 11 NOV 2019.
• Web of Science Citations: 1

Abstract

Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change-especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields-can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/02568-2 - Research on hantavirus and other viruses in wild small mammals and their ectoparasites
• Grantee: Gilberto Sabino dos Santos Junior
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 17/11666-0 - Yellow fever: transmission risk due to landscape changes and climate alterations
• Grantee: Paula Ribeiro Prist
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 13/25441-0 - Changes in functional and phylogenetic diversity of small mammals in defaunated Atlantic Forest landscapes
• Grantee: Ricardo Siqueira Bovendorp
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 17/21816-0 - Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus disease in a fast-changing country
• Grantee: Renata de Lara Muylaert
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 15/17739-4 - Landscape effects and the interaction between mammals and hantavirus in the Atlantic Forest
• Grantee: Renata de Lara Muylaert
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 13/50421-2 - New sampling methods and statistical tools for biodiversity research: integrating animal movement ecology with population and community ecology
• Grantee: Milton Cezar Ribeiro
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants